Buyers kept the upper hand in key markets as immigration and demand cooled
Housing markets across Canada entered late winter still searching for a floor, with fresh data from RBC Economics pointing to persistent price weakness in Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary even as confidence steadied.
RBC economist Rachel Battaglia said “housing markets across Canada remain subdued, despite signs of stabilization in consumer confidence.”
She added that Toronto and Vancouver “remained at the centre of the downturn, posting the steepest price declines from a year ago alongside Fraser Valley.”
Toronto and Vancouver stayed firmly in buyers’ territory
In the Toronto region, sales have fallen for five straight months by February, leaving the trend “unambiguously downward,” Battaglia said.
New listings dropped sharply in February but from still‑high levels, leaving active inventory elevated and bargaining power with buyers.
“Supply‑demand dynamics remain in favour of buyers, who continue to eke out price concessions from sellers,” Battaglia said, noting the MLS composite benchmark was down 7.9% year over year after nearly two years of declines.
Vancouver told a similar story. RBC estimated February resales ticked up 3.1% on the month, but described the gain as lacking momentum.
“Volatility… keeps resales significantly depressed from longer‑term averages, signalling ongoing weakness rather than genuine recovery,” Battaglia said.
Elevated stock meant Greater Vancouver’s benchmark price was 6.8% lower than a year earlier.
Montreal resilience and Prairie splits
Montreal stood out as one of the few large markets where prices were still rising.
RBC noted the median single‑family price was up 7% annually, with “relatively low inventory” underpinning resilience even as a surge in new listings nudged the market back toward balance.
In Calgary, February sales slid 6.4% and active listings sat 16.4% above a year earlier, keeping a lid on prices as a “record‑high number of residential units under construction” pointed to more supply pressure ahead.
Immigration reset and trade clouds shape 2026 outlook
RBC’s February and March housing reports tied softer demand partly to “slowing international immigration combined with net outflows to other regions and provinces,” especially in Ontario and B.C.
TD Economics likewise described 2025–26 as “a gradual, modest recovery in the housing market,” with weaker population growth and a deteriorating jobs backdrop restraining sales and prices.
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