One in five immigrants left Canada within 25 years, with top talent leading the exit
Canada’s ability to retain highly skilled immigrants—long a cornerstone of its economic and housing growth—has come under scrutiny as new research revealed persistent and troubling outflows of top talent.
According to “The Leaky Bucket 2025,” an impact paper by the Conference Board of Canada, one in five immigrants left the country within 25 years of landing, with the risk of departure peaking in the first five years.
The trend is most pronounced among those Canada has worked hardest to attract: highly educated and highly skilled newcomers.
“Immigrants with doctorates are nearly twice as likely to leave Canada within five years compared to immigrants with a bachelor’s degree,” the report found.
The risk is even higher for those in in-demand fields such as business and finance management, information and communications technology, engineering, and architecture management.
“Canada’s immigration model has become essential for maintaining workforce levels and economic growth,” the report stated, noting that the country’s fertility rate has plummeted to a record low of 1.26—one of the lowest in the world.
With Ottawa planning to stabilize permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually through 2028, the compounding effect of onward migration could mean over 20,000 skilled immigrants departing by 2031.
Economic stagnation a key driver
The research highlighted that immigrants facing stagnant or declining earnings were significantly more likely to leave, especially those with advanced degrees.
“Over 15 years, immigrants with doctorates were nearly three times more likely to leave Canada when their earnings stagnated or declined compared to immigrants with bachelor’s degrees,” the Conference Board said.
Regional disparities also emerged, with the Atlantic provinces experiencing the highest onward migration rates, followed by British Columbia and Quebec.
Most immigrants who left did so directly from their initial province of settlement, suggesting limited internal relocation as a retention strategy.
Mortgage and housing implications
Highly skilled immigrants are typically among the most likely newcomers to purchase homes, particularly in urban centres. Their departure means a shrinking pool of qualified homebuyers, which could dampen demand for both new and resale properties—especially in markets that have relied on steady immigration to drive growth.
The outflow of talent is not limited to potential buyers. Immigrants make up a significant share of Canada’s construction, engineering, and architecture workforce—fields already facing acute labour shortages.
According to the report, “immigrants represent 24% of Canada’s construction managers” and even higher shares in other technical professions. Their departure could exacerbate delays in housing development, slow the pace of new builds, and hinder efforts to address affordability and supply challenges.
With fewer skilled newcomers entering and staying in Canada, lenders may face increased competition for a smaller base of qualified borrowers. This could lead to more aggressive mortgage product offerings, tighter underwriting standards, or even downward pressure on home prices in select markets.
Policy recommendations
The Conference Board called for a national retention policy framework, targeted settlement supports for highly skilled immigrants, and employer incentives to foster welcoming workplaces.
“Expanding bridging programs, licensing pathways, and personalized settlement plans is an untapped avenue for reducing onward migration risk among highly skilled immigrants,” the report said.
Without urgent action to stem the outflow of skilled newcomers, the country risks undermining its housing ambitions and broader economic goals.
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