Pessimistic executives bet on reinvention, not rates alone, to drive future growth
Canadian chief executives have already been uneasy about the economy. PwC Canada’s latest survey among 133 CEOs showed that sentiment has not only dimmed further, but also diverged sharply from global optimism – a break that carries clear implications for lenders, mortgage investors and brokers.
Only 27% of Canadian CEOs expect the domestic economy to improve over the next 12 months, down from 42% a year earlier, and just 47% sees brighter prospects for global growth, compared with 61% of CEOs worldwide.
That weaker confidence sits against a mortgage backdrop where funding costs remain volatile, institutional investors grow more selective and loan growth has slowed in both residential and commercial segments.
“This year’s survey results mark a watershed moment for Canadian business leaders,” said Nicolas Marcoux, CEO of PwC Canada.
“For the first time in over five years, Canadian CEO sentiment is moving in the opposite direction of global optimism. The headwinds in Canada – trade uncertainty, tariff pressures, and slower adoption of transformative technologies like AI – are significant and very real.
“But they’re also a catalyst. We’re seeing Canadian companies rise to the challenge by reinventing themselves: entering new sectors, accelerating innovation, and embracing AI to build resilience and unlock growth. The message is clear – those who act boldly now will define Canada’s competitive future,” Marcoux said.
Confidence gap raises questions for lenders
Canadian CEOs reported heightened concern about US trade policy, with more than half worried about its impact and 35% expecting tariffs to erode profit margins over the next year.
Meanwhile, Canadian business sentiment remains subdued but has risen slightly from its 2025 low, according to the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey. Firms reported weak sales growth over the past year, largely reflecting the economic impact of trade tensions with the US.
For mortgage and real estate players, that caution translates into slower capital deployment, more conservative underwriting and renewed focus on sectors less exposed to trade uncertainty, such as domestic-focused multifamily and essential retail.
Senior bank and non-bank leaders are already recalibrating their growth plans in anticipation of a slower economy, even as they positioned for eventual interest rate cuts and a potential rebound in housing activity.
AI divide emerges as strategic fault line
PwC’s findings underscore a divide between experimentation and execution on artificial intelligence. While 94% of Canadian CEOs used AI to some extent, only 29% reported scaling it across their businesses, compared with 43% globally.
Mortgage lenders and brokers stressed that AI has moved beyond back-office automation to credit analytics, fraud detection and customer retention. Yet many admitted their deployments remain fragmented, held back by data quality issues, legacy systems and regulatory uncertainty around explainable credit models.
Despite this, AI is not likely to replace mortgage brokers anytime soon. That’s according to Pinsky Mortgages owner Eitan Pinsky, a Vancouver-based broker. Pinsky told Canadian Mortgage Professional that many clients are always likely to value the experience of consulting with a human advisor – even if AI offers the right options for other borrower types.
Marcoux pointed to reinvention as a partial answer. Fifty‑six per cent of Canadian CEOs said they expanded into new sectors over the past five years, and 64% plan to move into at least one new sector in the next three years. Strategic mergers and acquisitions are also back on the agenda, with nearly two‑thirds planning at least one deal.
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