New polling showed a calm public but a nervous housing finance sector
Canada’s mortgage industry went into the 2026 Canada–US–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) review watching a gap open between Bay Street anxiety and Main Street sentiment.
New Abacus Data survey suggested many voters do not see the fate of the trade pact as make‑or‑break, even as lenders and brokers treat it as a key risk for rates, jobs and housing demand.
The survey of 1,500 adults, conducted February 18–23, found a public that viewed the Carney–Trump standoff through a cool, transactional lens rather than a looming crisis.
Fewer than half of respondents thought losing CUSMA would clearly hurt Canada, and many preferred strategies that built leverage and diversified trade instead of trading concessions for short‑term calm.
Public not panicked about end of CUSMA
“This research reveals a perceptual gap that is likely to surprise many in the business and policy community. While CUSMA is widely seen inside boardrooms and trade circles as foundational to Canada’s economic stability, fewer than half of Canadians describe its potential end as clearly bad for the country,” Abacus Data CEO David Coletto, said.
“That does not mean Canadians are indifferent. It means the agreement itself is not emotionally salient for many voters. They are more focused on broader economic outcomes than on the architecture of trade policy.”
“At the same time, Prime Minister Carney appears to have a cautious mandate to stand firm,” he said. “Half believe he is protecting Canada’s core interests. Only small minorities believe he is either picking unnecessary fights or giving up too much.”
Canadians in the poll also leaned toward “strategies that build leverage and diversify trade relationships rather than trading concessions for short‑term calm,” Coletto said, adding, “They want resilience, not dependency.”
Mortgage leaders saw a darker trade cloud
The latest analysis by RBC Economics argued that the US Supreme Court’s decision curbing the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) for broad tariffs changed less for Canada than headlines suggested.
RBC said the bigger issue for Canada is preserving the tariff exemptions embedded in CUSMA.
Bank of Montreal chief economist Doug Porter previously mentioned that Canada still has “this really dark cloud of USMCA … uncertainty hanging over us” and that “what the housing market really needs is some clarity on the trade front,” warning that prolonged tension could weigh on construction, prices and credit availability.
In a separate analysis for Royal Bank of Canada, John Stackhouse framed the year ahead around Trump’s tariff agenda and Canada’s response, with tariffs being the biggest question mark hanging over Canada’s 2026 housing outlook, even after sizable rate cuts pulled mortgage costs lower.
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