Canadians split on housing outlook amid renewal wave

Majority of renewing homeowners plan to cut spending

Canadians split on housing outlook amid renewal wave

A new survey from TD Bank Group has found that Canadians are navigating the housing market from two very different positions: homeowners bracing for the financial weight of mortgage renewals, and prospective buyers quietly preparing to make their move.

The survey, conducted in February 2026 using the Leger Opinion panel with a nationally representative sample of 1,502 Canadian adults, found that stress and cautious optimism are both running high across the country.

Renewal pressures bite

For homeowners approaching renewal, the financial strain is already being felt. More than half (56%) of those anticipating higher payments said they plan to reduce household spending, while nearly four in 10 (39%) expect to rely on savings or invest less.

Anxiety around the process is widespread. More than two-thirds (67%) of homeowners surveyed reported feeling uneasy about their upcoming mortgage renewal. Despite this, only 9% said they plan to start renewal conversations with their lender or mortgage broker earlier.

When it comes to choosing a mortgage product, most homeowners appear to be seeking stability. Some 64% said they plan to renew at a fixed rate, with five-year and three-year terms leading as the most popular choices at 30% and 17%, respectively. Two in five homeowners (40%) said they plan to shop around for a new lender at renewal.

Patrick Smith, vice-president of real estate secured lending at TD, said early planning can ease the burden.

“Mortgage renewal can feel overwhelming, and Canadians appear to be feeling that pressure,” Smith said. “In an evolving rate environment, understanding your options and planning ahead through earlier renewal conversations can help Canadians feel more confident, make clearer choices, and stay in control of what comes next.”

Buyers edge toward market

On the other side of the market, prospective buyers appear to be gaining confidence. Three in 10 (30%) of prospective buyers surveyed said they are more likely to enter the housing market before the end of the year. Lower home prices were cited as the top motivator (50%), followed by stable interest rates (35%).

Still, affordability remains a significant barrier. Half of potential buyers said they are drawing on investment income (52%) and cutting non-essential spending (48%) to help fund a future home purchase. Three-quarters of prospective buyers said they are setting aside money each month toward the goal, and nearly half (48%) expect to make a down payment of less than 20%, which means they may need a high-ratio mortgage with default insurance.

One-quarter of prospective buyers (24%) said they are considering alternative living arrangements to make homeownership feasible. Meanwhile, more than half (58%) admitted they are unfamiliar with home equity lines of credit, commonly known as HELOCs.

Smith said buyers should look beyond the purchase price.

“Buying a home is about more than the purchase price. It’s about positioning yourself for the years ahead,” Smith said. “Working with a mortgage professional early can help buyers understand how these decisions affect their everyday finances and long-term goals.”