Planned changes could drive skilled immigrants—and housing demand—north
US president Donald Trump has floated a plan to impose a $100,000 fee on each H-1B visa application, strengthening speculation that highly-skilled foreign workers could set their sights on a move to Canada instead.
Aimed at curbing the influx of skilled foreign workers into the United States, the move could have far-reaching consequences for Canada’s housing and mortgage markets.
A new wave of skilled immigrants?
If the US becomes less accessible for global talent, Canada stands to benefit. Programs like Express Entry and the Global Talent Stream are designed to attract high-skilled workers and could make Canada the first choice for many.
"To seize this chance, we must act quickly. We need to prioritize the world's top talent and create a pathway for H-1B workers to move to Canada. This will increase job opportunities for Canadians at home rather than incentivizing them to move to the United States," Build Canada, a non-profit organization, said in a memo.
The US policy, announced last Friday, is widely expected to limit opportunities for highly educated foreigners seeking work in the country.
The White House said current H-1B holders will not be affected, but the changes took effect immediately and are likely to face legal challenges.
“So from India or from South Asia or from Europe, they’ll say, ‘Well, I can’t get into the US, but I want to move to North America — I’ll come to Canada,’” Royal Bank of Canada Chief Executive Officer Dave McKay said.
“All of that presents a material opportunity if the rules remain the same.”
A 2020 National Bureau of Economic Research study found that when the US restricted H-1B visas, multinational companies shifted hiring to Canada, India, and China. Firms hired the same skilled immigrants they had originally wanted in the US—but in Canada instead.
This aligns with recent Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) data showing a steady uptick in tech-sector immigration over the years.
Pressure on prices and supply
The influx of skilled immigrants would likely intensify competition for both rentals and homes for sale, especially in established tech hubs like Toronto, Vancouver, Waterloo, and Montreal.
Recent analysis by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) flagged affordability as a growing concern, with average home prices in Toronto and Vancouver already among the highest in North America. If supply doesn’t increase to match demand, affordability will worsen.
Meanwhile, Canada’s rental market continued to cool in August, with Toronto and Vancouver posting some of the largest annual rent declines, according to Zumper. It was the eleventh straight month of falling rents nationwide, driven by more supply and weaker demand.
Still, a caveat: Canada has recently lowered the number of immigrants it will welcome in the years ahead, trimming its target from former prime minister Justin Trudeau's 500,000-per-year goal, meaning likely limits on the number of skilled workers entering the country even if demand intensifies.
Broader economic and regional impacts
While the main impact would be felt in Canada’s largest cities, secondary markets could also see spillover as newcomers seek more affordable options. Increased interest in cities like Calgary, Ottawa, and Halifax as tech workers are flexible and often willing to relocate for the right opportunity and housing.
In fact, newcomers could also boost Canada's population growth, which recently slowed to just 0.1% from April to July 2025. The Bank of Canada has flagged low population growth and a weak labour market as risks to household spending, a rare bright spot in an economy that contracted last quarter.
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