New RBC analysis pointed to a split housing recovery that left southern Ontario lagging
Canada’s housing market has finally “kicked into gear” this fall, but the rebound remains uneven across the country, according to a new analysis by Robert Hogue, assistant chief economist at RBC Economics.
The report showed a November pickup in resales from Vancouver to Montreal while Toronto and Hamilton continued to lose steam.
In Western Canada and Quebec, Hogue said the tone has shifted. Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Calgary, Edmonton, Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg and Montreal all saw home resales rise in November from October, “in some cases by more than 5%.”
Markets that have been quiet earlier in the season registered what he called “a notable” improvement in activity.
By contrast, “November results in Toronto confirm the picture that has emerged over the previous three months: Home resales have stalled, inventory is abundant, sellers face strong competition, and prices are drifting lower,” Hogue said.
Activity in the region remains about “25% below pre‑pandemic norms” despite only a marginal 0.6% month‑over‑month sales gain, he added.
He pointed to “tariff‑related economic uncertainty, grimmer job prospects, lower immigration and little urgency to strike deals when inventory is high, and prices are declining” as key drags on demand in the Toronto area.
“Many homes for sale compared to demand is weighing on values,” Hogue said, adding that condo prices faced “the strongest downtrend.”
Montreal holds its footing as buyers bid up detached homes
In Montreal, Hogue estimated that home resales have edged up about 1% in November from October, extending a “slow, gradual ramp‑up” that has been under way since 2023.
“Low and stable inventory, and tight new supply compared to demand are compelling buyers to bid more aggressively, fuelling moderate price gains,” he said.
Single‑detached homes saw “the most in value,” with the median price up 5.8% over the past year, while condo prices stayed flat amid growing supply.
Vancouver and Calgary show quiet resilience
The Vancouver area still looked subdued overall, with resales “more than 15% below the 10‑year average,” but Hogue said there are “tentative signs of renewed confidence.”
Resales increased in both October and November, with the latest advance “exceeding 4%” on a seasonally adjusted basis. A “doubling in homes for sale since 2022” gave buyers more choice even as November’s MLS HPI sat 3.9% below a year earlier.
In Calgary, where buyers have been drawing on “plentiful” existing inventory, Hogue estimated that home resales have jumped more than 5% from October to the strongest level since January.
The composite MLS benchmark stood 4.6% – or about $27,200 – lower than a year earlier. He said a “historic ramp‑up in homebuilding since 2022,” with builders “working on a record 26,500 units,” has pushed homes for sale to a seven‑year high.
A split path toward a broader recovery
Across regions, Hogue expects “diverging trends” to persist into early 2026, with abundant‑supply markets such as Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto likely to see further price softness, even as parts of the Prairies and Quebec maintain gains.
He argued that “a broader recovery should gradually emerge as economic momentum builds, and labour market conditions improve,” though any rebound would be filtered through still‑stretched affordability and the looming renewal cycle.
Brokers have been preparing for that renewal wave, noting Bank of Canada estimates that about 60% of mortgages would renew by 2026, with most borrowers facing double‑digit payment increases – a projection that remained subject to future rate moves and policy changes.
Even as sales volumes in many markets begin to heal, underlying pressures from affordability, construction gaps and uneven local economies mean that Canada’s housing story in 2026 would be less about a single turning point and more about how borrowers and lenders navigate a drawn‑out, regionally fractured recovery.
