Brokers are already hearing from public‑sector clients whether to stay in smaller towns or move back toward Ottawa
Federal Ottawa has set up another real‑world test of how far return‑to‑office mandates could move the housing market. The Treasury Board confirmed that executives would be back in the office five days a week from May 4, with the rest of the core public service expected on‑site at least four days from July 6.
The decision comes as brokers are already hearing from public‑sector clients worried about jobs, commute costs and whether to stay in smaller towns or move back toward Ottawa.
Downtown Ottawa bets on renewed foot traffic
The Treasury Board message said the government has “put forward ambitious plans to deliver on priorities for Canadians and to strengthen our country,” and that “working together onsite is an essential foundation of the strong teams, collaboration and culture needed during this pivotal moment and beyond.”
Prime Minister Mark Carney signalled in December that “there will likely be different levels of return depending on seniority, depending on role and obviously depending on capacity.”
Ottawa Mayor Mark Sutcliffe, for his part, said he is “looking forward to seeing how [return‑to‑office] plans roll out,” adding, “we want to see our downtown thriving and prosperous.”
For federal landlords, the announcement arrives in a market that has already shown tentative signs of stabilizing. CBRE reported that Canada’s office market hit a turning point in 2025, with 2.2 million square feet of positive net absorption and Toronto leading the gains, primarily downtown.
Moreover, for the first time in seven years, Toronto’s office market saw more space leased than vacated in 2025, according to Avison Young’s latest Greater Toronto Area (GTA) report. Net absorption turned positive across the region in 2025 after four straight years in the red, with overall availability edging down to 19.2% from 21.2% a year earlier.
Unions decry the abrupt shift
Unions argued they were blindsided.
“We’ve seen this pattern over and over again. We have, this time, half an hour’s notice on a massive change to our workplace policy,” Nathan Prier, president of the Canadian Association of Professional Employees, said.
“This government does not want to have a conversation about this. They are not interested whatsoever in all of the benefits of telework.”
Public Service Alliance of Canada national president Sharon DeSousa called the move “a slap in the face to all federal public service workers across this country,” adding, “it is insulting for any employer, let alone the government, to change the conditions of work while its workers are in bargaining.”
She said the union is “examining all options, including legal action.”
The Professional Institute of the Public Service of Canada, representing more than 80,000 professionals, said it has been “kept in the dark” and that “this mandate isn’t about performance, collaboration or service to Canadians. It’s about optics, imposed on a workforce already dealing with layoffs, budget cuts and a workplace already in chaos.”
What it means for mortgage and housing markets
For mortgage professionals, the key question is whether more time at the desk translated into more demand for homes closer to downtown Ottawa.
Public‑sector mandates suggest the impact on city‑centre buying would likely be modest. Broker Chris Allard previously told Canadian Mortgage Professional that return‑to‑office efforts would have “a somewhat limited impact,” noting many federal workers earned in the $70,000‑to‑$140,000 range, a band that left little room to trade up into pricier central neighbourhoods even with a daily commute.
Survey work also showed most knowledge‑economy workers still preferred remote or hybrid arrangements, with only a small minority favouring full‑time office work – a signal that strict mandates risk retention issues rather than a wholesale rush back to city condos.
Still, brokers are likely to see more files from clients reassessing long commutes from exurban markets such as Arnprior, Kemptville or across the river in Quebec. Some could opt to sell and move closer in; others might double down on outlying homes and absorb higher transport costs, especially if they believe future governments could once again loosen in‑office expectations.
For smaller communities that benefited from the pandemic‑era exodus of remote‑enabled public servants, the risk over time is a slow drip of departures, rather than a sudden wave, as some households trade time and space for predictability around office attendance. That would unfold against a broader backdrop of elevated rates, demanding stress‑tests and rising renewal costs – factors already pushing more borrowers toward brokers for options and advice.
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