New home sales are now at their lowest point for 45 years
New home sales in the Greater Toronto Area sank to a record low in 2025, capping the weakest year in 45 years of data and deepening concerns that today’s slowdown would hollow out construction jobs and future housing supply.
There were just 240 new home sales in December, 24% below December 2024 and 82% under the 10‑year average, according to Altus Group, the Building Industry and Land Development Association’s (BILD) market intelligence provider.
That brought total 2025 sales to 5,314 units – a fraction of the roughly 28,000 annual deals seen over the past decade.
“GTA new home sales in December 2025 reached an all‑time low, bringing a fitting close to 2025,” Edward Jegg, research manager at Altus Group, said.
“Never in the 45 years that new home sales data have been collected for the GTA have we seen just 5,300 sales for an entire year.”
“Meanwhile, 2026 is likely to see geopolitical concerns linger, prices remain elevated and the Bank of Canada has indicated the cycle of interest rate cuts has ended – thus the main drivers of buyer hesitancy are expected to drag on well into the year,” Jegg said.
William B.P. Robson and the C.D. Home Institute MPC recommend keeping the overnight rate at 2.25% through January 2027, citing easing inflation and moderating wage and business investment growth in Canada.https://t.co/SvKO9Rc8DK
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) January 24, 2026
Condominium apartments – long the workhorse of GTA supply – accounted for only 2,067 sales last year, 89% below the 10‑year average.
Meanwhile, Urbanation reported that condo sales in the GTA and Hamilton just hit a 34-year low. There were only 1,599 new condominium apartment sales last year, a 60% drop from 2024 and 95% below 2021 levels.
Single‑family homes totalled 3,247 sales, 63% below their decade norm. December condo sales collapsed to 87 units, while single‑family sales fell to 153.
New home pipeline under pressure
Total remaining inventory in December stood at 20,849 units, or about 26 months of supply based on the past year’s sales – the highest level on record.
“New home construction is a cornerstone of our economy, yet it has effectively stalled,” BILD chief operating officer Justin Sherwood said.
“New home sales are down well into the double digits across the province, putting 100,000 jobs at risk in Ontario alone,” Sherwood said.
Policy debate intensifies over HST and housing targets
Sherwood said “now is the time to eliminate the HST on all new homes to lower the cost of housing and get buyers back into the market and the industry back to work.”
Ontario Premier Doug Ford backed a broader HST break, saying the market would boom if the federal government agreed.
Critics questioned whether Queen’s Park would deliver on its own targets.
“We have seen the number of housing starts in this province plummet. Every year is worse than the last one,” Ontario Liberal housing critic Adil Shamji said, pointing to the Progressive Conservatives’ softened goal of 1.5 million new homes by 2031.
Ontario recorded about 62,000 housing starts in 2025, a 13% drop from 2024, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation data, even as CMHC estimated Canada needed millions of additional units this decade to restore affordability.
Nationally, CMHC and private‑sector economists warned that weakening condo pre‑sales and falling Ontario starts would limit how quickly construction could respond when borrowing costs eventually eased.
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