Public resistance and shifting preferences could pose challenges for employers' efforts to bring workers back to the office
Recent months have seen employres including Canada's banking giants and Ontario's provincial government ramp up efforts to bring workers back to the office for most of the week. But that push has hit a snag, with public sector workers none too happy about the idea and surveys illustrating a clear shift in working preferences that emerged during the pandemic.
Last week, public sector workers staged a high-profile rally outside Queen’s Park in Toronto, protesting mandatory in-office policies.Meanwhile, thousands of employees have reportedly sought exemptions to the federal government’s RTO mandate, arguing that the push back to desks is out of step with both worker sentiment and broader workplace trends.
Recent survey data echoed these sentiments. Most Canadians in professional, finance, and knowledge jobs aren’t eager to give up remote work. Just 9% would choose to work in the office full-time, while 59% said they’d rather work mostly from home, according to an Angus Reid survey.
Another study also found that women, senior staff, and highly skilled employees are more likely to leave companies with strict return-to-office policies, meaning these firms risk losing top talent.
Urban revival hopes dim as suburban shift persists
While some employers hoped RTO mandates would revive demand for city-centre condos and urban homes, industry experts remain sceptical.
In a recent interview with Canadian Mortgage Professional, Ottawa-based broker Chris Allard said there would be a “somewhat limited impact” of a meaningful uptick in downtown homebuying, even if more organizations forced employees back to the office.
“I say that from the standpoint that most of the people who work within the government have an income that, per person, might be somewhere between $70,000 and $140,000 for the most part. So the household incomes are somewhere between $140,000 and maybe $280,000," Allard said.
“A lot of those borrowers, unless they’re later on in their career, are not buying in the core because they can’t afford living in the core. So they’re going to buy in suburbia or the outskirts purely from an affordability standpoint. So I don’t think a return to work is going to make an immense difference.”
Indeed, the pandemic-era migration to the suburbs appears to have staying power. Toronto saw one of the biggest moves out, with over 64,000 people leaving the city for other parts of Ontario between July 2020 and July 2021, according to Statistics Canada.
Affordability and flexibility shape future housing demand
For mortgage professionals, the RTO debate is more than a workplace issue—it’s a market signal. If remote and hybrid work remain entrenched, demand for suburban and exurban properties is likely to stay robust, while urban condo markets may continue to lag.
Canadians who bought homes in Alberta but are now being called back to offices in Toronto or Vancouver can’t just pack up and leave. Many have settled in Alberta, started families, and become part of their communities. “This momentum can’t be unwound overnight by shifts in corporate policy,” Max Singh, a Calgary-based broker with TMG The Mortgage Group, told Canadian Mortgage Professional.
Even Alberta’s priciest homes cost far less than those in Ontario or BC, making it unlikely that workers would want to move back to the more expensive provinces.
The tug-of-war between employers and employees over work location may not be settled soon, but for now, the momentum appears to be with those championing flexibility.
“In my view, return-to-office trends may moderate the pace of out-of-province demand to some degree, but they won’t reverse it entirely," Singh said. "Instead, we’ll likely see buyers more carefully weighing commuting realities and hybrid work flexibility when deciding how far they can live from major cities.”
In Toronto, the required income to purchase the average home fell by $4,040 to $200,800, while Vancouver buyers needed $3,100 less than the previous month, according to Ratehub.ca’s latest Affordability Report.
However, not all markets shared in the relief. St. John’s stood out as the exception, where buyers needed an extra $710 in income due to a $6,600 jump in average home prices.
