The new CIBC Capital Markets report outlined how shifting US trade policy and demographic trends are redrawing the provincial growth map
Canada’s provinces are feeling the squeeze from escalating United States trade tariffs, with New Brunswick and British Columbia now among the most vulnerable economies in the country, according to a new CIBC Capital Markets report.
The study outlined how shifting US trade policy and demographic trends are redrawing the provincial growth map—posing fresh challenges for mortgage and housing professionals.
Tariffs put pressure on key export sectors
The CIBC report found that “British Columbia and New Brunswick now appear more at risk, due to the sharp escalation of lumber tariffs, and are no longer expected to outperform the national average next year.”
While Ontario and Quebec have historically borne the brunt of US tariffs, the latest round of anti-dumping duties—now totaling 45% on softwood lumber—has pushed BC into the spotlight and intensified pressure on New Brunswick’s export-heavy forestry sector.
“Provinces in the rest of Atlantic Canada and the prairies have been more insulated from US trade policy, although Chinese tariffs have been impacting agricultural exports from central Canada,” the report stated.
Housing market and labour trends diverge
New Brunswick's heavy reliance on US lumber exports—accounting for up to 90% of sector shipments—means local job losses are a real risk.
“In year-over-year terms, Quebec and New Brunswick are seeing two of the biggest declines, but Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are not far behind,” CIBC’s economists warned.
Broader housing market trends add another layer of complexity. While Ontario’s exports have held up thanks to non-US demand, “continued weakness within the housing market is likely to keep overall GDP growth reasonably modest,” the report said.
In contrast, prairie and Atlantic provinces have seen stronger homebuilding activity, but even there, “the current stronger level of construction is making inroads into the prior underbuilding relative in population growth in Alberta, that isn’t yet the case in provinces such as Manitoba and Saskatchewan, or those in Atlantic Canada.”
Benjamin Tal described Canada’s economy as a per capita recession, with high-rise condos in Ontario and Vancouver hardest hit. He urged urgent policy action including Bank of Canada rate cuts and tax relief for homebuyers.https://t.co/8ufgmLFiRL
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) October 20, 2025
Labour market dynamics are also shifting. “Population growth has eased dramatically over the past year [in Atlantic Canada], and could result in labour shortages sooner rather than later,” the report cautioned.
Meanwhile, Alberta faces the opposite challenge: rapid population growth is pushing up unemployment rates despite solid job creation.
Looking ahead, CIBC expects Ontario and Quebec to remain the most exposed to US trade policy, but “British Columbia and New Brunswick now appear more at risk, due to the sharp escalation of lumber tariffs.”
The report suggests that while Alberta’s economy could accelerate in 2026 and 2027, Nova Scotia may soon hit its growth ceiling as demographic tailwinds fade.
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