Resale transactions across the province are projected to fall
Quebec’s residential market is expected to come off the boil in 2026, but not to cool enough to give buyers much relief.
The Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers (QPAREB) forecast that, after several years of exceptional activity, sales would slip while prices keep climbing from already elevated levels.
Resale transactions across the province are projected to fall by about 2% in 2026, to roughly 95,700 deals, as slower population growth, affordability constraints and lean inventory take some steam out of activity. Even so, that level would still sit above historical norms, keeping conditions tight in many local markets.
“The Quebec real estate market is not tipping into a sharp slowdown. Rather, it is entering a transition phase, with activity normalizing after reaching historical peaks. The market will remain strong compared with the historical average,” said Charles Brant, QPAREB’s market analysis director.
Prices under pressure, but growth more uneven
Despite the modest drop in sales, QPAREB expected seller‑friendly conditions to persist.
The association projected the provincial median price of a single‑family home would reach $520,200 in 2026, a 6% increase, while the median condominium price was forecast at $408,000, up 3%.
Even within that overall picture, affordability begins to bite. QPAREB said sharp past gains and construction-cost pressures would continue to push values higher, but price growth is likely to diverge more across regions as stretched buyers in costlier markets pull back.
Montreal and Quebec City heading down different paths
Montreal’s census metropolitan area (CMA) is expected to see a 3% decline in sales in 2026, with single‑family supply still constrained and a more balanced condominium segment as new, higher‑end units accumulate on the market.
By contrast, Quebec City’s CMA remains defined by scarcity, with QPAREB projecting continued pronounced shortages across property types and stronger price growth, particularly for single‑family homes and condos.
Earlier QPAREB report highlighted chronic tightness and record or near‑record sales in Quebec City over 2023–25, even as other markets softened.
In 2024, Brant described the region as “firmly positioned in an expansion phase” with prices “seeming unwavering,” and warned that worsening affordability and rising unemployment could eventually check that momentum.
Regional resilience and the mortgage renewal test
After rate cuts in 2024 and 2025, QPAREB said the stabilization of policy rates created a more predictable environment for buyers and owners entering what remains a challenging renewal period.
“Available data suggests that homeowners are approaching this transition with notable financial resilience, supported by the significant appreciation in property values in recent years and by historically low mortgage delinquency rates,” the association said.
National credit data shows mortgage delinquency rates in Quebec and across Canada remain low by historical standards, even as consumer delinquencies on other products edge higher.
Outlook: A market that favoured experience
Looking ahead to the spring peak, QPAREB anticipates an active but less frantic market, marked by longer decision timelines and more cautious buyers.
“Nonetheless, real estate is increasingly viewed as a safe haven as the Quebec market continues to demonstrate enviable stability. Overbidding should continue to gradually subside without disappearing entirely, particularly in segments and areas where supply remains very limited,” said Brant.
“Regional markets will evolve differently in 2026. Where supply remains extremely limited, an upward pressure on prices will remain strong, even in a context of moderating demand,” said Camille Laberge, QPAREB assistant director and senior economist.
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