Mortgage difficulties, tariffs, and buyer uncertainty push down sales in key regions
British Columbia’s housing supply has increased sharply, but home sales are expected to continue falling this year as buyer uncertainty over tariffs, the economy, and affordability weighs heavily on the market, according to a new forecast from the BC Real Estate Association (BCREA).
The report projects that residential sales in BC will fall 1.1% this year to 73,650 units, with sharper drops of 1.6% in Metro Vancouver and 2.4% in the Fraser Valley — regions already under pressure from skyrocketing home prices and eroding affordability.
“While there is significant pent-up demand in the market, uncertainty about the direction of the economy is holding that demand back,” said BCREA chief economist Brendon Ogmundson.
Hopes for a return to normalcy in the BC housing market have been “swiftly dashed” this year, largely due to the fallout from the ongoing trade war, Ogmundson noted.
The Lower Mainland is bearing the brunt of the slowdown, with sales activity suffering from both economic uncertainty and persistent affordability challenges. In the first quarter of 2025, Metro Vancouver home sales were approximately 7% below even the weak levels seen at the start of 2024, while the Fraser Valley experienced a steep 23% decline over the same period.
Realtors on the ground are feeling the shift. Harvey Gill, a realtor with Re/Max City Realty in Vancouver, said the downturn became noticeable at the end of last year and that “it’s going to be a tough year for real estate agents.”
Gill pointed to US president Donald Trump’s tariffs as one factor shaking buyer confidence, but added that local pressures, including rising inventory and mortgage qualification difficulties, are amplifying the challenge.
“Some of it is also due to a lot of refinancing that’s coming up,” Gill told the Vancouver Sun. “During 2020 and 2021, rates were super low, so people broke out of their previous term agreements to do a new term, and now a lot of it’s coming up for renewal, and because the rates are a lot higher than they were, the mortgage payments are much more tougher.”
Gill also reported an uptick in clients abandoning presale condominium purchases as mortgage approvals fall through.
“Instead of completing their presales that are coming up for completion this year, they’re offering it to new buyers and forfeiting their deposit,” he said.
Many of these buyers initially entered presale agreements without securing full mortgage qualifications, expecting financing to come easily when the buildings were ready but are now struggling under stricter lending conditions.
Other key pressures include federal government measures such as the extended ban on non-Canadians buying residential properties, which remains in place until 2027, as well as BC’s speculation and vacancy taxes and the newly implemented home flipping tax designed to curb investor speculation and cool home prices.
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Although BC is somewhat more insulated from US shocks than provinces like Ontario, the BCREA report notes that global trade tensions are adding broader risks.
A continued trade war between the US and China, BC’s two largest trading partners, could “dramatically slow global growth and reduce demand for BC exports,” posing serious challenges for the provincial economy and raising the risk of recession over the next year.
Despite the downbeat short-term outlook, BCREA economists forecast a rebound in 2026. Province-wide residential sales are projected to rise 8.8% to 80,150 units, with Metro Vancouver expected to lead growth at 13.5%, followed by 7.4% in the Fraser Valley and 10.7% in Chilliwack.
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