Will the market soon regain momentum?
The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its third-quarter housing forecast, anticipating a brighter market in 2026 after a slow 2025. According to the forecast, Multiple Listing Service (MLS) residential sales across the province are projected to fall by 2.2% to 72,840 units this year.
“Trade-related uncertainty upended hopes for a more normal market through the first half of 2025,” said BCREA chief economist Brendon Ogmundson.
Despite the current slump, the forecast projects a substantial recovery, with MLS residential sales expected to increase by 10.7% to 80,600 units in 2026. “While provincial home sales remain weak overall, particularly in the Lower Mainland, many markets are now returning to long-run average sales activity and should head into 2026 with some momentum,” noted Ogmundson.
Market trends and price projections
Provincial resale inventory has stabilized at over 40,000 listings, a level not seen in more than a decade. This stabilization is expected to lead to different outcomes depending on the region's demand. The BCREA predicts that regions with stronger demand will see modest price growth. Conversely, weaker markets, such as the Lower Mainland, are expected to experience downward pressure on prices.
Overall, the BCREA forecasts largely flat average prices for the remainder of this year, with a slight increase in 2026 as markets regain balance.
The decline in sales also aligns with recent data on housing starts. A report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) shows the total monthly seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of total housing starts in Canada was up 4% in July compared to June. British Columbia housing starts fell 15% in July driven by an 11% decrease in new single-detached home starts, while starts for other housing types fell 4%.
The British Columbia government has implemented new housing orders for 10 additional municipalities, aiming to create approximately 40,000 homes over the next five years.
What are your thoughts on the recent projections? Share your insights in the comments below.
