Is the national housing market slowly recovering?
Canadian home sales rose for the second straight month in June as a 2.9% drop in new listings signalled tightening supply conditions.
Transactions increased by 2.8% last month compared with May, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reported on Tuesday, in a sign that homebuying could be bouncing back even amid continuing tariff-related economic uncertainty.
The sales gain followed a 3.5% increase in May. The Greater Toronto Area led the recovery, with transactions up a cumulative 17.3% since April. However, activity in the region remains historically low.
At the national level, actual (non-seasonally adjusted) sales in June were 3.5% higher than the same month in 2024. The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) was nearly unchanged, down 0.2% from May, and 3.7% lower year-over-year. The non-seasonally adjusted national average sale price declined 1.3% from June 2024 to $691,643.
“Most housing markets continued to turn a corner in June, although market conditions still vary considerably depending on where you are in Canada,” said Valérie Paquin, CREA chair.
She added that if economic uncertainty held back the spring market, delayed activity could surface later in the year, subject to any further disruptions.
New supply declined by 2.9% month over month in June. With sales up and fewer new listings, the national sales-to-new-listings ratio increased to 50.1%, compared to 47.3% in May. The long-term average for this measure is 54.9%. Ratios between 45% and 65% generally represent balanced market conditions.
“It’s another month of data suggesting the anticipated rebound in Canadian housing markets may have only been delayed by a few months, following a chaotic start to the year,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s senior economist. “Although with the latest 35% tariff threat, we’re not out of the woods yet.”
At the end of June, there were 206,435 properties listed on Canadian MLS Systems, up 11.4% year over year and just 1% below the long-term average for that time of year. National inventory stood at 4.7 months, slightly under the long-term average of five months. A seller’s market is typically below 3.6 months, while a buyer’s market is above 6.4 months.
The National Composite MLS HPI was down 3.7% year over year. Given the extent of price declines in the second half of 2024, CREA anticipates year-over-year comparisons may narrow in the coming months.
Make sure to get all the latest news to your inbox on Canada’s mortgage and housing markets by signing up for our free daily newsletter here.
