Experts say reduced US real estate spending could revive Canada's sluggish property sectors
More Canadian real estate investors are stepping away from the US as tensions rise between the two nations, a shift that could funnel millions of dollars back into Canada’s housing market.
Canadians accounted for 7,100 US home purchases in 2024, mainly targeting vacation hotspots, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). However, rising tensions between Canada and the US are prompting many to reconsider where they put their money.
A recent report by RAM Development Group revealed that 81% of Canadians now prefer to keep their investments at home, with 34% of those surveyed indicating the change is likely permanent. If just 100 Canadian buyers exit a single US state, the real estate platform Zoocasa estimates it could mean $80 million in lost transaction volume.
Canadian purchases of US property have already been declining at an average rate of 14.5% annually between 2019 and 2024, hitting their lowest point in 15 years, even lower than during the COVID-19 pandemic’s peak.
If the current retreat continues, Florida alone could lose more than US$653 million in real estate transactions over the next two years, while Arizona could see a $366 million decline. Other top Canadian vacation destinations, like Hawaii, California, and New York, are also expected to experience hundreds of millions of dollars in potential losses.
Zoocasa’s report predicts this shift could spark a surge in Canada’s recreational real estate market, especially in vacation regions.
“While returning buyers could add to competition in already tight markets, many are likely to be retirees or snowbirds who would focus their purchases in vacation areas,” the report notes. Ontario’s cottage country, which has had a slow start this year, could especially benefit.
Royal LePage’s 2025 Spring Recreational Property Report forecasts a 4% increase in the mean price for Canadian cottages, with 70% of brokers reporting steady or rising demand compared to last year.
Read next: Luxury real estate remains resilient in Canada despite trade war
An April survey from employment platform Humi Inc. found that half of Canadians who had been considering a move to the US are now rethinking those plans. But not all returning snowbirds are set on Canadian property. Zoocasa notes some could look for second homes outside both Canada and the US, aiming for destinations less impacted by the current political climate.
For those planning to sell their US properties, financial experts warn the process is rarely simple. Clay Jarvis, NerdWallet Canada’s Mortgage and Real Estate expert, points out that cross-border sales involve tax complications.
“Fifteen percent (15%) of the sale price may need to be withheld by the IRS, with possible capital gains taxes on top,” he said.
Sellers must also report proceeds to the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA), and those returning home with unpaid US bills could benefit from keeping a US-based bank account or credit card to avoid wire transfer and currency conversion fees.
Jarvis advises Canadians navigating these transactions to consult mortgage and tax professionals to avoid unexpected costs or legal headaches.
“Selling property in the US can be complex and intimidating. Always tag in mortgage and tax professionals to make sure you’re not caught off guard by the costs or responsibilities,” Jarvis said.
Make sure to get all the latest news to your inbox on Canada’s mortgage and housing markets by signing up for our free daily newsletter here.
