Sales fell 9.5% in October, but new listings climbed
The Greater Toronto Area’s housing market continued to cool in October, with home sales dropping 9.5% year-over-year to 6,138 transactions, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).
While buyers benefited from lower prices and softer mortgage rates, many remained on the sidelines amid ongoing economic uncertainty.
Buyers cautious despite more options
TRREB president Elechia Barry-Sproule said, “Buyers who are confident in their employment situation and ability to make their mortgage payments over the long term are benefitting from affordable housing market conditions relative to the past few years. However, many intending homebuyers remain on the sidelines due to uncertainty about their economic future.”
New listings rose 2.7% to 16,069, while active listings surged 17.2% to 27,808, giving buyers more choice and negotiating power.
The average selling price dropped 7.2% year-over-year to $1,054,372, and detached homes saw an even steeper decline, down 7.3% to $1,355,506. Condo apartments averaged $660,208, a 4.7% decrease.
Affordability improves, but confidence lags
“The monthly mortgage payment for an average-priced GTA home continued to trend lower in October, benefitting from both lower borrowing costs and lower selling prices. This means more buyers can now afford to purchase a home that meets their housing needs. Once we have more certainty on the economic front, including trade with the U.S. and China, home sales should increase,” said Jason Mercer, TRREB’s chief information officer.
Canada’s economy took a step back in August, with gross domestic product (GDP) contracting by 0.3%. That's a sharper decline than economists had anticipated.
TRREB CEO John DiMichele added, “Housing is essential economic infrastructure. As the population continues to grow, innovation and private capital are required to accelerate new construction across all housing types. Governments can help by modernizing tax rules, cutting buyer costs, and ending exclusionary zoning. Working together, we can rebuild confidence, create jobs, and deliver the homes Ontarians need. We have to act now.”
Meanwhile, Canada’s federal government unveiled a 2025 budget that marks a sharp pivot from previous years, with prime minister Mark Carney’s first fiscal plan prioritizing long-term investments over program spending, even as the deficit rises to $78.3 billion.
The government’s plan rests on $280 billion in investments over five years, with $115 billion earmarked for infrastructure, $110 billion for productivity and competitiveness, $30 billion for defense and security, and $25 billion for housing.
Broader market context and outlook
The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) for October hovered around 38%, well below the 50% threshold that typically signals a balanced market, and months of inventory climbed to 4.7—both indicators of a market tilting in favour of buyers.
The Bank of Canada’s overnight rate remained at 4.7%, and inflation in Toronto was reported at 2.3% in September, both factors shaping buyer sentiment.
With more inventory and softer prices, well-qualified buyers have new opportunities, but broad market momentum will likely remain subdued until economic confidence returns.
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