Sales activity cooled in September, but pent-up demand and stable rates may drive a rebound
Canadian home sales slipped 1.7% in September compared to August, halting a five-month run of gains that began in April, according to the latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
The decline was most pronounced in Greater Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa, and Montreal, which collectively outweighed modest increases in the Greater Toronto Area and Winnipeg.
Despite the monthly drop, September’s activity remained robust by recent standards.
“While the trend of rising sales that began earlier this year took a breather in September, activity was still running at the highest level for that month since 2021,” Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s senior economist, said.
“With three years of pent-up demand still out there and more normal interest rates finally here, the forecast continues to be for further upward momentum in home sales over the final quarter of the year and into 2026,” Cathcart said.
CREA’s Home Price Index (HPI) edged down 0.1% month-over-month, while the unadjusted HPI dropped 3.4% compared to September 2024.
The national average sale price ticked up 0.7% year-over-year to $676,154. New supply also slipped, with the number of newly listed properties down 0.8% month-over-month.
At the end of September, there were 199,772 properties listed for sale on Canadian MLS Systems—a 7.5% increase from a year earlier, but still close to the long-term average for this time of year.
The sales-to-new listings ratio eased slightly to 50.7% from 51.2% in August, remaining within the 45%–65% range that CREA considers indicative of a balanced market.
Inventory levels stayed tight, with 4.4 months of supply nationally, unchanged from July and August and below the long-term average of five months.
Royal LePage’s Q3 2025 House Price Survey shows Canada’s housing market edging toward balance, with sales up but prices steady at $816,500. Phil Soper highlighted easing prices and renewed rate cuts as key drivers of improving affordability.https://t.co/vWZxcg1R8I
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) October 15, 2025
CREA’s latest forecast projects a 1.1% decline in home sales for 2025, followed by a 7.7% rebound in 2026. Average prices are expected to fall 1.4% in 2025 before rising 3.2% the following year.
“While there are more buyers in the market now than at almost any other point in the last four years, sales activity is still below average and well below where the long-term trend suggests it should be,” Valérie Paquin, CREA chair, said.
“As such, we expect things will continue to steadily pick up going forward.”
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