CMHC flagged these regional increases as a sign that 'financial stress remains, particularly in Ontario'
Canada’s national mortgage delinquency rate fell for the first time in three years in Q2 2025, dropping to 0.22%, according to the latest Residential Mortgage Industry Report (RMIR) from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).
While the national picture improved, Ontario and British Columbia continued to see rising delinquencies, pointing to ongoing financial strain for both lenders and borrowers.
Ontario’s mortgage delinquency rate climbed to 0.23%, overtaking the national average for the first time since at least 2012. In Toronto, the rate jumped from 0.15% in Q2 2024 to 0.24% in Q2 2025. That's a 60% year-over-year surge and the highest level since 2012.
British Columbia also saw its delinquency rate rise from 0.16% to 0.19% over the same period.
CMHC flagged these regional increases as a sign that “financial stress remains, particularly in Ontario,” even as Atlantic Canada, Quebec and the Prairie provinces posted declines.
Origination growth and shifting lender landscape
Despite the uptick in delinquencies in Ontario and BC, mortgage lenders nationwide experienced growth in originations in the first half of 2025. This was driven by a surge in insured mortgages and refinances, as well as a wave of renewals from borrowers whose mortgages originated in 2020 and 2021.
The Big 6 banks and credit unions expanded their market share to 59% and 18% respectively, aided by acquisitions such as RBC’s purchase of HSBC’s Canadian business.
Alternative lenders—who typically serve borrowers with weaker credit—grew their outstanding mortgage value faster than traditional lenders, even as they tightened lending standards.
Renewals and risk metrics in focus
The renewal wave is expected to continue, with over 750,000 mortgages coming due in the last half of 2025 and more than a million in 2026.
Most borrowers have managed increased payments at renewal, but the share of new uninsured mortgages with a total debt service (TDS) ratio above 45% dropped to 31.3% in Q2 2025, down from 33.8% two years prior.
Still, the household debt-to-disposable-income ratio remained stubbornly high at 181.8%, and mortgage holders’ delinquency rates are rising faster than those for non-mortgage credit consumers.
According to a new CIBC Capital Markets report, the 90+ day delinquency rate for homeowners has risen slightly above 2019 levels, driven more by job loss than payment shock so far. It also warns of mounting pressure at the margins as mortgage renewal shock peaks in 2026.
While the national delinquency rate’s decline is a positive signal, the increases in Ontario and BC highlight the uneven nature of Canada’s mortgage market recovery.
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