Report warns Ford government’s housing target may fall short of demand
Ontario may need to build up to 2.1 million homes over the next decade to meet growing demand and address affordability, according to internal documents prepared for the province’s new municipal affairs minister. The figure surpasses the Progressive Conservative government’s current target of 1.5 million homes by 2031.
The projection, obtained by CBC News through a freedom of information request, was shared with municipal affairs and housing minister Rob Flack upon his appointment in March. It cites both a shortfall in existing supply and a surge in population since 2021 as key drivers.
“It is estimated that between 1.5 million to 2.1 million new homes will need to be built in Ontario over roughly the next decade,” the briefing reads. The higher estimate is drawn from a 2023 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) analysis, which measures what is needed to return to 2003 affordability levels.
Ontario’s population has grown by approximately 1.2 million people since 2021. However, annual housing starts have fallen below the 100,000 needed to stay on track with the province’s target. The briefing identifies several barriers to construction, including rising land and material costs, skilled labour shortages, and municipal infrastructure delays.
Earlier this month, the province passed Bill 17, which aims to speed up homebuilding by deferring development charges and cutting down on required municipal studies. Still, Flack acknowledged the government may fall short. “If it stays the way it is now, we’ll never get there,” he said. “But is it forgotten? No way.”
Opposition leaders urged a reassessment of the plan. “We really need to hear from this government – is housing still a priority?” said NDP housing critic Catherine McKenney.
Green Party leader Mike Schreiner said the province should invest in non-profit and co-operative housing to reach the higher target. “It is increasingly being confirmed that the Ford government has abandoned building homes people can afford,” he said.
Experts echoed concerns. “People just kind of laugh now at that 1.5 million target,” Karen Chapple, director of the University of Toronto’s School of Cities, told CBC News.
Mark Winfield, professor at York University, questioned the feasibility of the numbers. “I find it a little hard to compute how you could possibly come up with those kinds of numbers, and indeed, how you could possibly build that many housing units if you wanted to,” he said.
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