Study finds three-bedroom rentals rising at expense of family homeownership
A new analysis from the University of Ottawa’s Missing Middle Initiative reveals that more young families are leaving Toronto and Ottawa, driven out by housing policies and market trends that have reduced access to affordable, family-sized homes.
The study, based on 2016–2021 census data, found that the number of children under five declined in both cities between 2016 and 2021, while adjacent regions with more owner-occupied homes featuring three bedrooms or more saw their young child populations grow by over 5%.
“The tax, regulatory, and economic conditions in many Ontario communities are making it increasingly difficult for middle-class families to afford a three-bedroom home, resulting in a decline in the population of young children in those communities,” the report stated. “This needs to be fixed.”
‘Unit-is-a-unit' thinking
The researchers argue that Ontario’s approach to housing policy, what they term "'unit-is-a-unit' thinking," fails to prioritize the construction of larger, family-oriented homes. Instead, the focus on increasing housing supply often leads to the conversion of existing homes into rental units, particularly three-bedroom properties.
According to the study, these conversions have “crowded out young families,” with an observed negative correlation between the growth of three-bedroom rentals and the population of children under five.
As affordability slips further out of reach in city centers, families seeking homeownership are moving farther from the core in search of properties they can afford. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation said that homebuilding would need to double over the next decade just to restore affordable prices.
Ottawa and Hamilton both saw a roughly 20% increase in three-bedroom rentals between 2016 and 2021, driven mainly by conversions of formerly owner-occupied homes. Yet, during that same period, the population of children under five decreased by 0.2% in Ottawa and grew by just 2.8% in Hamilton, both rates lagging behind overall population growth.
Push-pull effect
While the Missing Middle Initiative acknowledges that correlation does not equal causation, the data suggest a clear relationship.
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“Communities with a high number of young families, who are reaching the age where they are starting to have children, tend to build a large number of family-friendly homes, as developers respond to this market demand.”
Meanwhile, “communities that build a lot of family-friendly housing attract families with young children.”
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