Stalemate in key markets keeps pressure on prices and upcoming renewals
Canada’s housing market remained stuck in neutral in February as both would‑be buyers and sellers pulled back, leaving prices on a slow grind lower and activity well below pre‑pandemic norms.
RBC Economics said “winter’s grip extended deeper into Canada’s housing market in February, with both buyers and sellers pulling back in tandem.”
Resales slipped 1.3% from January on a seasonally adjusted basis, while new listings fell 3.9%, nudging the national sales‑to‑new‑listings ratio to 48% from 46%.
The national MLS Home Price Index dipped 0.6% month over month and 4.8% year over year, extending a 15‑month decline and leaving prices 20% below their early‑2022 peak.
Inventory overhang weighs on Ontario and B.C.
RBC said inventory sat at the equivalent of five months of sales – a six‑year high – keeping “downward pressure on prices in the coming months, especially in Ontario and B.C.”
Markets in those provinces “continue to stand out for the wide selection of homes available to buyers,” while offerings remained much tighter across most of the rest of the country.
Price softness has spread, RBC noted, with year‑over‑year declines in Toronto (‑7.9%), Vancouver (‑6.8%) and neighbouring regions including Mississauga, Hamilton‑Burlington, Niagara and the Fraser Valley, all down about 7%–8%.
Edmonton’s benchmark price fell 2.1% year over year, joining Victoria, the Okanagan Valley and Saint John in negative territory.
Montreal, Saskatoon and Regina were notable holdouts, with prices still up between roughly 5% and 7% from a year earlier.
CREA’s latest national snapshot pointed in the same direction, showing a 16.2% annual drop in home sales in January and a 2.6% decline in the average price from a year earlier, with activity at multi‑year lows even after significant interest‑rate cuts.
Renewal shock meets softer market
“The biggest pivot for many homeowners this year is happening at renewal,” Victor Tran, mortgage and real estate expert at Rates.ca, said.
Lea Zlatkin, a Toronto‑based broker, said many borrowers still risk a “huge shock” if they wait for the renewal letter before running the numbers.
RBC warned that any spring pickup would likely be “gradual and uneven,” with Ontario and B.C. facing “a longer journey than other regions” because of high inventories, stretched affordability and “stiffer demographic headwinds.”
For seasoned brokers and lenders, a tepid spring market and looming payment resets mean client strategy has to centre on renewal readiness, cash‑flow triage and realistic pricing in markets where buyers now have time and options on their side.
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