The RPS-Wahi House Price Index showed national prices flat year-over-year for the second straight month
Canada’s housing market hit a turning point in October, with the RPS-Wahi House Price Index showing national prices flat year-over-year for the second straight month.
The real story, however, is the growing gap between markets, as single-family home prices softened and regional outliers pulled away from the pack.
For the first time in more than two years, all major property types tracked by the index were either flat or down compared to last year.
Detached home prices, which had shown resilience through September, stalled. Townhouse values slipped 1%, semi-detached homes dipped 2%, and condo prices dropped 6% year-over-year.
“We saw more softness setting into the Canadian housing market at the national level this fall, with previously more resilient single-family home prices dipping,” RPS-Wahi economist Ryan McLaughlin said.
“However, the national numbers mask surprising and sustained strength in certain regions,” he added.
Regional winners and laggards
Quebec City and Winnipeg emerged as the country’s hottest housing markets, each posting an 11% annual price gain in October.
Recent Wahi research pointed to “relative affordability and more favourable regional economic conditions” as key drivers, while supply-side constraints — especially Quebec City’s shift toward purpose-built rentals — have intensified competition for ownership housing.
“Winnipeg’s drum-tight rental market may encourage some to purchase property rather than lease when possible,” McLaughlin said, noting the city’s vacancy rate for purpose-built rentals has been trending below 2%.
Regina and Montreal both saw 7% annual price growth, with Regina standing out as the only major market where appreciation accelerated from September.
Meanwhile, previously exuberant Alberta markets have cooled, with Calgary and Edmonton returning to balance after a period of rapid price gains.
On the other hand, Toronto and Vancouver continued to drag down the national average. Weakness in their condo segments persisted, and detached home prices in both cities fell 3% to 4% year-over-year.
Victoria edged closer to annual price declines, underscoring the unevenness of Canada’s market recovery.
Long-term trends and market outlook
The RPS-Wahi House Price Index covered more than 1,000 communities. The index’s long-term trend shows property values have more than tripled since 2005, but recent months have brought a period of stabilization.
The HPI’s rolling average methodology filters out short-term volatility, offering a clearer view of underlying market momentum.
With affordability and supply constraints shaping divergent regional outcomes, mortgage professionals will need to stay nimble. As McLaughlin put it, “The national numbers only tell part of the story.”
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