National prices slipped, but Quebec City and Regina told a very different story
Canada’s housing market entered 2026 on a cooler note, with the national RPS‑Wahi House Price Index down 2% year over year in January. Outside Toronto and Vancouver, however, most major centres looked steadier, setting up a year where regional risk matters more than national averages.
“Although the January reading of the RPS‑Wahi House Price Index represents the largest annual decline in two and a half years, most urban centres outside of the Toronto and Vancouver regions are showing signs of stability,” RPS‑Wahi economist Ryan McLaughlin said.
“In some cases, such as Quebec City and certain markets in the Prairies, markets are even gaining momentum,” he said.
The latest index showed price declines across all property types spilling into 2026, with condo values again falling faster than single‑family homes. That pattern remained closely tied to Toronto and Vancouver, where national condo softness reflected an inventory overhang and buyer fatigue.
Quebec City and Regina defy the slowdown
Quebec City stood out as the country’s strongest market, with housing values up about 14% year over year in January and inventory reportedly down roughly 26% from a year earlier.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC)’s housing outlook pointed to Quebec City, Regina and Montreal as markets where relative affordability and stable employment are expected to push prices higher through 2026.
Victoria and Toronto test buyers’ nerves
On the West Coast, Victoria overtook Vancouver as British Columbia’s weakest market early in 2026, with valuations down about 5% year over year compared with a 4% drop in Vancouver. Yet sales in Victoria held relatively stable in recent years, and local board leaders emphasized balance rather than distress.
“It doesn’t feel like we’re grossly oversupplied, and, if you go back historically, we’re still short of what was considered a pretty balanced market in Victoria,” said Dirk VanderWal, director and committee chair of the Victoria Real Estate Board.
Toronto, by contrast, combined weaker prices with rising supply. McLaughlin said the interest rate environment offered little relief to a market where population shifts and new completions weighed on demand.
“The fundamentals of the market are not in its favour,” he said, pointing to forecasts for further, if modest, price declines through 2026.
Meanwhile, Greater Toronto Area condo sector highlighted a glut of unsold units and vanishing demand and steep costs facing developers, even as CMHC stressed that a 1990s‑style crash remained unlikely.
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