Quebec City is poised to lead the rebound even as Toronto keeps sliding
Royal LePage’s 2026 Market Survey Forecast pointed to a fragile national recovery, with most big-city markets edging higher while Toronto and Vancouver stayed in reverse.
The brokerage projected the national aggregate home price would reach $815,272 in the fourth quarter of 2026, up 1.0% year over year from $807,200.
Across the 12 major markets in the report, 10 are expected to post gains.
The Greater Montreal Area was forecast to see prices rise 5.0% to $672,735, Ottawa 2.0% to $786,624, and Calgary 1.5% to $691,926.
Halifax, Winnipeg and Regina were each projected to record 4.0% growth, while Edmonton is expected to climb 2.0%.
Quebec City becomes the standout market
The sharpest move is slated for Quebec City, where Royal LePage forecast a 12.0% year‑over‑year jump in Q4 2026, to an aggregate price of $508,032 from $453,600. The firm said that outlook reflects tight supply and steady demand rather than speculative heat.
Economic headwinds and geopolitical shocks weighed on the early‑2026 picture. The Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Forecast said “economic challenges and geopolitical uncertainty” – including the US and Israel’s war on Iran – were partly to blame for a slow start to the year, with national aggregate prices down 2% year over year in the first quarter but up 0.7% from late 2025.
Phil Soper, Royal LePage president and CEO, said the sluggish opening months were also shaped by nervous first‑time buyers, “sell‑before‑buy behaviour” and restricted inventory in prime markets.
He added that an eventual reset, paired with lower rates, has the potential to “rebuild market confidence among both buyers and sellers.”
Toronto and Vancouver remain the weak spots
In the Greater Toronto Area, the forecast called for a 4.5% decline in aggregate prices by Q4 2026, to $1,035,507 from $1,084,300.
The firm reported that in Q1 2026 the GTA’s aggregate price already dipped 4.7% year over year to $1,091,900, even as values inched up quarter over quarter.
Royal LePage broker Shawn Zigelstein said price growth “remains flat” in Toronto, with “elevated supply levels” keeping conditions balanced.
He said condo activity has picked up slightly thanks to first‑time buyers and downsizers, but a “degree of gridlock with buyers and sellers waiting for more favourable conditions to move forward” persists.
Vancouver is also expected to post a 3.5% annual price drop in Q4 2026, to $1,137,542 from $1,178,800, underscoring the uneven nature of the national rebound.
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