Find out which markets keep climbing even as Canada’s housing slump deepens
Canada’s housing market ended 2025 in retreat, but a handful of regions continued to post striking price gains.
RBC Economics reported that national home resales fell 2.7% in December from November, with the MLS Home Price Index (HPI) edging down 0.3% month over month.
“Canada’s housing market closed out 2025 without much hype as home resales and prices declined in December,” assistant chief economist Robert Hogue wrote, pointing to “persistent affordability challenges, economic uncertainty, and job market slack” as key headwinds.
Quebec leads the outliers
While Ontario and British Columbia saw values erode, Quebec’s major markets moved in the opposite direction.
“The MLS HPI posted year-over-year gains between 5.9% and 17% across major markets in Quebec with monthly advances recorded in December,” Hogue said.
Quebec City “continues to outpace the nation with its MLS HPI surging 17% annually, and advancing a robust 3.2% from November,” he added.
RBC’s broader forecast has highlighted that “balanced supply-demand conditions in the Prairies, Quebec, and parts of Atlantic Canada are expected to support modest price gains in 2025 and 2026,” even as national prices drift lower.
Quebec brokers described markets such as Quebec City, Saguenay and Trois-Rivières as “potentially more resilient to the increase in the cost of financing.”
Prairies and Atlantic markets hold firm
Outside Quebec, “home values in Saskatchewan and Manitoba remain similarly well supported with the MLS HPI up between 6.2% and 6.9% year-over-year. The Atlantic region’s price trends also predominantly show an upward tilt,” Hogue said.
Those gains contrasted sharply with Ontario and BC, where “home values are falling … where affordability pressures are most acute, and inventory is elevated,” and buyers enjoyed “ample choice” and strong bargaining power.
Earlier RBC research underlined that these diverging paths were likely to persist as abundantly supplied markets such as Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto “continue to see falling home values,” while “prices in parts of the Prairies and Quebec maintained solid gains.”
What comes next for the national market
RBC estimated overall resale transactions slipped 1.9% in 2025, as a trade war “derailed a recovery supported by material interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada.”
Hogue said a broader rebound would “hinge on the pace of confidence rebuilding” in a slow-growth, slower-immigration backdrop, with policy rates already at what RBC viewed as cyclical lows.
Make sure to get all the latest news to your inbox on Canada’s mortgage and housing markets by signing up for our free daily newsletter here.
