Central bank expected to stay on the sidelines after stronger-than-expected hiring
Canada’s labour market delivered another upside surprise in November, likely confirming that the Bank of Canada will keep rates unchanged next week.
The economy added roughly 54,000 jobs in November, marking a third straight month of gains and bringing the three‑month total to about 181,000.
Unemployment dropped to 6.5%, from 6.9% in October, its lowest level since mid‑2024, even as US tariffs continued to weigh on trade‑sensitive sectors.
Economists had expected a modest job loss and a jobless rate closer to 7%.
Youth and part-time work lead gains
Labour market momentum remained concentrated in part‑time roles and younger workers.
StatCan said “most of November’s job gain was concentrated in part-time work,” with 63,000 net additions linked largely to health care and social assistance.
Youth aged 15 to 24 added about 50,000 jobs in November after a 21,000 gain in October, the first back‑to‑back increases this year, pulling their unemployment rate down to 12.8% from a recent 15‑year high.
Health care and social assistance led sectoral hiring with 46,000 positions, while wholesale and retail trade shed 34,000 roles and manufacturing also weakened.
Average hourly wages for all workers rose around 3.6% year over year, while wage growth for permanent employees held near 4%, a measure the Bank tracks closely as a gauge of inflation pressure.
What it could mean for the rate path
For mortgage professionals, the key question is how much this report would sway a central bank that markets already view as likely to hold its key rate at 2.25% on Wednesday.
Stronger jobs data have tilted expectations before. In a past decision, a blowout employment gain of more than 80,000 jobs virtually ended any slim chances of the Bank cutting rates at that meeting.
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) assistant chief economist Nathan Janzen said with the central bank already likely to stay on hold before Friday's report, the latest decision strengthened those chances.
Canada’s economy appears to have snapped back in the third quarter, but TD Economics’ Andrew Hencic, director and senior economist, said the headline strength was unlikely to push the Bank of Canada toward another rate move in December.https://t.co/GDjUDhc3MM
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) December 2, 2025
The latest GDP figures, which showed annualized third‑quarter growth of 2.6% even as domestic demand softened, point to an economy that has cooled but not cracked.
Combined with November’s jobs report, that makes an imminent rate cut less likely, while a hike still appears a high bar given trade uncertainty and pockets of labour market slack.
Until that balance breaks one way or the other, mortgage professionals could face a prolonged period of rate stability, with client conversations focused less on imminent relief and more on managing renewals in a still‑restrictive environment.
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