An out-of-province buyer surge in Calgary is slowing amid spiking prices

Broker suggests other Alberta markets are benefiting from price appreciation in Calgary

An out-of-province buyer surge in Calgary is slowing amid spiking prices

Stretched housing affordability in Canadian cities like Toronto and Vancouver meant Calgary and Edmonton emerged as prime options during and after the pandemic for out-of-province buyers hoping to realize their dream of home ownership. But for brokers trying to keep up, the ideal destination for hopeful buyers is always shifting.

Many borrowers armed with the ability to work from home flocked to Calgary from provinces such as Ontario and British Columbia to chase affordability. Now, with home prices on the rise in Calgary, the flow of migrants to that city has slowed as people look elsewhere in Alberta. Still, patterns emerged in the initial rush to Calgary that could help brokers thrive in the next surge.

“Alberta's like a motorcycle. It's goes like crazy and then it stops like crazy,” said Remi Korent (pictured top), a mortgage broker with Quantus Mortgage Solutions based out of Calgary. “People move to where it's more affordable.”

While during the market’s peak, Calgary brokers like Mark Herman and team saw half of clients coming from outside the province, that number has now fallen to about 15%, he told Canadian Mortgage Professional.

That’s a significant slowdown from the frenzy seen in recent years, when Herman said a client even had a two-and-a-half-year plan to move from BC to Calgary that included taking a longer commute to work for his competitor so he could eventually manoeuvre his way into a management role at the company’s office in Calgary.

“People call me from BC and they say, ‘I can't afford soccer for my kids,’” said Herman.

According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), Alberta saw around 13,000 interprovincial migrants in the last quarter of 2024 alone. The main reasons for that surge are clear: in Toronto the average home price sits at just over $1 million, while an average home in Calgary sells for $639,458.

But higher demand from out-of-province buyers means brokers taking on these clients must put in extra work. Herman said his team first counsels clients on what they need to be able to qualify for a house in Calgary; for example, a client cannot be self-employed. “We set them up at least knowing what they need to have.”

He and his team will also give advice on how to get there faster: one way is asking for the standard 90-day probation period of any job to be waived to allow someone to get a house.

“They want you to have a house when you move here, but you’ve got to set it up so they will waive your probation, or they will shorten your probation so that you can buy a house sooner,” he said.

Many homebuyers coming from outside the province can work remotely, allowing them to chase affordability in different parts of Canada, but Herman cautioned that’s often not enough alone to be able to buy. To qualify, workers need a letter from HR that explicitly says that they can work from home on a permanent basis.

Clients might be reluctant to raise that topic with their HR, but usually have little other choice. If they don’t want to ask for that letter, “well, then you’re not going to be working out here full-time,” Herman said. “So that’s the end of it.”

Korent notes a steep jump in Calgary prices due to the amount of people moving there. According to the provincial government, 100,000 people moved to the city last year. Now with supply not keeping up with demand, he has seen people looking to communities surrounding Calgary and also Edmonton where prices have not yet shot up.

“Edmonton is really blowing up lately,” he explained, noting “more multiple offers and price wars than here [Calgary]” in that city.

Herman also highlighted an explosion of home sales in Red Deer, one he attributes to retirees flocking into Alberta to be closer to their children in Calgary. “It’s only an hour and a half away. So if you're from Ontario, an hour and a half away is a day drive for lots of people.”

With the landscape always shifting Korent now predicts that the migration will shift to Saskatchewan. “I have some buddies that work in Saskatoon and they're busy doing mortgages and they say the same thing,” he said.

 Korent believes that with prices rising in Alberta, cities like Saskatoon may become more attractive to young people chasing affordability. “There's a good vibe, it's [Saskatoon] a decent size, there's a nice river that goes through it, it's kind of younger, more fun university kind of place.”

For now, interprovincial migration is slowing down, with 20% fewer people coming to Alberta in the last quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. However, according to Korent this may be a good thing.

“Sure, your property value went up $100,000, $200,000, but it's almost like it's fake money because  even if you sell, you’ve got to move somewhere, you’ve got to live somewhere,” said Korent adding “I would rather see more affordable prices, like a teacher making $80,000 being able to buy a house for $400,000.”

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