Most Canadians doubt a trade deal with the US is coming soon
Canadian confidence in a swift resolution to the ongoing trade standoff with the United States has hit a new low, with a recent Nanos Research poll showing 67% of Canadians believe a deal to lower tariffs is unlikely in the next six months.
Just 28% believed a deal was likely, and 3% were unsure, highlighting growing doubt as negotiations stayed stuck.
Buyers show resilience amid trade war
Despite the political turbulence, mortgage professionals report that Canadian buyers are taking the uncertainty in stride.
Micky Khaneka, broker with DLC Clear Trust Mortgages, observed that after months of back-and-forth headlines, most clients have grown accustomed to the noise and are no longer hesitating because of it.
“It is something that I’m assuming people watch, but it’s not something that has the topmost importance to people,” Khaneka told Canadian Mortgage Professional.
He added that buyers are increasingly focused on long-term goals rather than short-term headlines.
“I think a lot of people start to focus also on, ‘Okay, if this is a home that I’m planning to live in five to 10 years, does renting make sense for me or do I see myself buying? And if I’m going to buy, how much am I saving and how much am I paying?’ So I’m seeing that buyers are getting more and more knowledgeable and they’ve started to put up with the amount of news that’s coming at us better.”
Trade uncertainty weighs on economic outlook
The uncertainty is not without consequence. Trump’s sectoral tariffs on Canadian metals, autos, and softwood lumber have already led to job losses and a chill in business investment. The USMCA, which is up for review in July 2026, remains a crucial framework for tariff-free access to the US market, but 30% of Canadians now expect it could be scrapped entirely, according to the Nanos poll.
Nanos pointed out that concerns about Trump and Canada-US relations have doubled in recent weeks, with nearly 18% of Canadians citing it as their top issue, statistically tied with jobs and the economy.
The latest impasse followed US president Donald Trump’s abrupt halt to negotiations after Ontario’s anti-tariff ad campaign aired during the World Series. The campaign, spearheaded by premier Doug Ford, drew Trump’s ire and led to threats of an additional 10% tariff on Canadian goods, although that has yet to materialize.
Prime Minister Mark Carney, who was not involved in the ad campaign, apologized to Trump, but the damage was done.
“It’s not the first time the Carney government has appeared to edge close to a deal before talks collapsed,” Nanos Research founder Nik Nanos said in an interview.
Carney’s earlier efforts to negotiate a comprehensive agreement have repeatedly run aground, most recently over Canada’s proposed digital services tax and subsequent US tariff hikes.
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