GTA home sales and prices continued to slide as buyers stayed cautious
Toronto’s housing market remained stuck in neutral this fall, with no sign of a rebound as home sales and prices continued to slide.
October data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) showed home sales dropped 9.5% year-over-year to 6,138 transactions, while new listings climbed and average prices fell, leaving buyers with more options but little urgency to act.
“We’ve seen that prices are still down since the summer,” Taz Zaide, mortgage agent at 6ix Mortgage Group, told Canadian Mortgage Professional. “We’ve started doing appraisals now for properties that are coming up for closings and what we’re seeing is that the values are coming in lower than when they purchased back in June, July, even August.
“So we’ve still seen a little bit of a dip in price. And I do still think that right now, buyers have that advantage because sellers are desperate to sell as they’re still worried that things might not go back up again.”
Buyers hold back as inventory grows
The Greater Toronto Area’s sales-to-new-listings ratio hovered around 38% in October. That's well below the 50% threshold that signals a balanced market.
Active listings surged 17.2% to 27,808, and the average selling price dropped 7.2% year-over-year to $1,054,372.
Detached homes saw an even steeper decline, down 7.3% to $1,355,506. Condo apartments averaged $660,208, a 4.7% decrease.
Despite improved affordability and softer mortgage rates, many buyers remained on the sidelines. “It sounds like more than ever, we’re going to be in a sideways market. So I don’t expect prices to increase. I do think that we’re going to be in a pretty flat environment maybe for the next two or three years,” Zaide said.
Broader market malaise persists
Toronto’s market mirrored a national trend of subdued activity. According to RBC Economics, the Toronto area has been “stuck in the last three months with home resales close to 25% below pre-pandemic norms.”
The composite MLS Home Price Index has declined about 5% from a year ago, with little urgency among buyers as inventory remains high and prices continue to soften.
While other cities such as Montreal and Calgary saw modest upticks in resales, Toronto, along with Edmonton, Regina, and Winnipeg, recorded declines.
RBC’s analysis pointed to “tariff-related economic uncertainty, grimmer job prospects, lower immigration and little urgency to strike deals when inventory is high, and prices decline.”
Outlook: Flat market ahead
Zaide advised clients to focus on their own needs rather than trying to time the market. “I think people just need to make the move based off of what they’re comfortable with rather than trying to time the market—because you can’t really time the market, especially right now with all the uncertainty.”
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