Homeowners who delayed renewals this fall are already paying the price
Many Canadian homeowners who have waited for lower mortgage rates this fall instead found themselves renewing at higher costs, as market forces pushed fixed rates upward even while central bank policy appeared more benign.
Rather than tracking the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate, fixed mortgage pricing has followed government bond yields, which moved higher in recent months and nudged lenders’ fixed offers from the mid‑3% range into the low‑4% range for many borrowers.
“Over the past few months, I’ve seen clients turn down fixed-rate renewal offers around 3.7% because they were convinced rates would keep falling,” said Leah Zlatkin, licensed mortgage broker and LowestRates.ca expert.
“Now those same borrowers are coming back and finding that the best available rates start with a four. That delay is already resulting in higher monthly payments.”
The Bank of Canada is expected to hold its policy rate steady for an extended period following November’s inflation data, which showed core price pressures easing even as the headline rate remained unchanged.https://t.co/2TZtTYmMrV
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) December 16, 2025
Why delay quickly became more expensive
Zlatkin said many borrowers misunderstood how quickly renewal offers could change.
Lenders typically held quoted rates for only 30 to 60 days, she noted, after which preferred pricing could disappear if markets moved against borrowers.
Even modest rate moves had outsized effects for households carrying large balances.
“Homeowners who value predictable payments shouldn’t be waiting for a perfect moment,” Zlatkin said.
“In this environment, waiting can mean paying more while gaining very little in return.”
The Bank of Canada has already warned that about 60% of mortgage holders renewing in 2025 and 2026 would face higher payments as they rolled off ultra‑low pandemic‑era loans.
Zlatkin previously urged borrowers to start planning four to six months before renewal and to model payments 15% to 20% higher to test their budgets.
How borrowers could still protect themselves
Zlatkin said some homeowners approaching renewal might opt for shorter terms or products with flexible prepayment features, allowing them to secure a rate now while keeping room to adjust if conditions eased later.
She also emphasized the value of early conversations with brokers once a renewal letter arrived, so borrowers could compare their lender’s offer against the wider market rather than accepting it by default.
Earlier LowestRates.ca research suggested that rising rates had already stretched many households, with roughly one third of Ontario homeowners surveyed reporting they might struggle with higher payments after renewal.
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