Hazelview’s 2026 outlook put one sector in sharp focus amid mixed overall REIT performance
Hazelview Investments’ 2026 Global Public Real Estate Outlook Report points to a Canadian REIT market that has already begun to bifurcate in 2025, with one sector sharply outperforming even as large parts of the residential sector lag: seniors housing.
The firm framed REITs as approaching an “inflection point” globally, with Canada among the markets where supply, demand, and valuations appear to be lining up for a recovery in listed real estate.
Canada’s seniors housing shines, but multifamily stumbles
In 2025, Canada outperformed the global benchmark, generating a total return of 11.8% in local currency, according to Hazelview.
Seniors housing led the way, with operators such as Chartwell Retirement Residences delivering returns of 37.8% in Canadian dollars.
Hazelview said this strength reflected “favourable demographics and constrained new supply” across North American senior housing.
That upbeat picture aligned with Hazelview’s earlier assessments that seniors housing REITs were “expected to lead the way as the sector capitalizes on strong demand and low supply.”
By contrast, listed Canadian housing vehicles struggled. In 2025, single‑family rental and multifamily REITs declined 10.2% and 6.3%, respectively, as higher new supply and lower immigration weighed on demand.
Hazelview said Canadian multifamily REITs “were impacted by higher supply and lower immigration levels, resulting in weaker demand,” even as United States peers also faced a “weaker‑than‑anticipated peak leasing season.”
Valuations, rates and capital discipline set the stage
Hazelview emphasized that global REITs have underperformed broader equities since 2020, with valuations at “multi‑decade lows” versus stocks and trading at a “double‑digit discount to intrinsic value.”
The firm said companies have increasingly turned to share buybacks and privatizations in response to public market discounts.
Other recent commentary from Hazelview described REITs as “trading at lower levels than the financial crisis” and even below COVID‑era lows, a valuation “construct” the firm did not expect to persist.
In Canada, Hazelview said REITs are poised to benefit from the Bank of Canada’s 2024 rate‑cutting cycle, expecting “continued long‑term growth in earnings and occupancy” for seniors housing vehicles.
For lenders and mortgage professionals, the report suggests that credit demand and refinancing needs could remain robust in segments where supply stays constrained, notably seniors housing and select industrial assets, even as parts of the multifamily market digest new inventory.
This article is part of CMP’s Commercial sector focus for January, spotlighting the commercial mortgage market and the key trends and issues facing the space in 2026. Find all the rest of our special coverage here.
