City becomes second-priciest capital as migration and tight supply drive sustained growth
Brisbane has officially become a million-dollar housing market, with its median house value surpassing $1 million for the first time in May, according to new research from property data firm Cotality.
Figures from Cotality’s Home Value Index show the median house value in Brisbane rose to $1,006,000 in May, and then climbed to $1,011,000 in June. This makes Brisbane the second-most expensive capital city housing market in Australia, behind Sydney.
The Queensland capital has overtaken both Melbourne and Canberra in median house prices over the past year. Brisbane’s median house value now sits around $63,000 higher than Melbourne’s and $30,000 more than Canberra’s. Despite this, Sydney continues to lead by a wide margin, with a current gap of more than half a million dollars between the two cities’ median house prices.
“Brisbane’s median house value sits at a near-record high,” said Eliza Owen (pictured below), head of research at Cotality. “The gap between Sydney and Brisbane’s median house value is currently at a near-record $549,000, although this gap has reduced from a peak of $567,000 in October last year.”
The rise in Brisbane’s housing market comes as the number of Australian homes valued above $1 million hits an all-time high. According to Cotality, more than a third of properties across the country are now worth more than $1 million — marking a significant shift in national housing affordability and market dynamics.
Over the past five years, Brisbane’s housing market has undergone significant growth, with values surging 76.1% since June 2020. At the start of that period, the median house price was $558,000.
Population growth and housing demand fuel price rise
The increase in values has been attributed in large part to strong interstate migration, particularly during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Between June 2020 and June 2024, Greater Brisbane’s population expanded by 9.2% – an additional 235,000 people – outpacing the national population growth rate of 6% during the same timeframe.
“This suggests additional dwelling demand of about 94,000 in Brisbane over the four-year period from population growth alone,” Owen said.
At the same time, housing construction struggled to keep up. Based on state-level data, an estimated 88,000 homes were completed in Brisbane over that four-year span – falling short of the population-driven demand.
This mismatch between demand and supply contributed to the strong uplift in prices. Brisbane’s relative affordability compared to Sydney and Melbourne, its lower housing density, and its lifestyle appeal during the pandemic are also seen as factors drawing more people to the city.
“An unusually large number of Australians have left the southern states, arriving in Queensland, and fewer people have moved away from the Sunshine State,” Owen said.
Affordability pressures emerge
While Brisbane’s growth has been robust, rising property values are now beginning to erode the city’s affordability edge. Analysts point to a slowdown in the pace of growth in recent months, suggesting demand may be starting to cool.
The city’s housing market grew by 1.9% over the June quarter, a moderation from the 3.5% growth recorded a year earlier and far below the 10.2% peak seen in late 2021.
With affordability becoming a bigger concern, brokers and industry professionals may see shifting buyer trends, particularly among interstate purchasers who were previously drawn to Brisbane for its lower price point.
For mortgage brokers, understanding these dynamics – particularly the interplay between migration, supply constraints, and affordability – will be critical in advising clients and managing expectations in a rapidly changing market.
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