Lifestyle migration and commodity cycles drive regional housing trends
Regional property values in Australia have surpassed the national growth rate by 14.1% over the past decade, according to new analysis.
The findings highlight two main factors behind this trend: the movement of buyers seeking more affordable and attractive living outside major cities, and the influence of commodity market cycles on regional economies.
“The affordability story started before the pandemic, as Sydney and Melbourne buyers sought coastal and country alternatives,” said Atom Go Tian, senior data analyst at Ray White. “The pandemic accelerated this trend when remote work made regional living more viable for city workers.
“The commodity story is different as it is tied to global demand for Australia’s resources like iron ore, coal, and lithium,” said Go Tian. “When prices are up, mining towns boom. When they fall, these communities struggle.”
Between 2015 and 2020, regional home prices increased by 98.8% to $688,000, while the national average rose by 84.7% to $950,000. Regional prices now represent 72% of national house prices, narrowing a gap that historically stood at around 65%.
The research points to the pandemic as a pivotal moment, with regional price growth diverging from the national trend as remote work and lifestyle preferences became more prominent. “From 2020 onwards, house price growth in regional Australia began to diverge from national house price growth as a combination of affordability-driven lifestyle migration and commodity cycle booms,” Go Tian (pictured right) said.
The analysis also notes that regional markets are not uniform. “Affordability-driven migration powered NSW and Victoria’s early success, then spread to South Australia as those markets became expensive,” Go Tian explained. “Buyers seeking lifestyle benefits at lower prices have driven sustained demand in coastal and country areas.”
Queensland and Western Australia’s regional markets have been shaped by commodity cycles, with mining towns experiencing significant swings in property values. “These areas declined when prices fell, then surged when global demand for Australia’s resources recovered,” Go Tian said.
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