Strong migration and limited supply drive ongoing price growth ahead of 2032 Olympics
South-east Queensland’s population is projected to reach about 4.5 million by the time Brisbane hosts the 2032 Olympic Games, with further growth expected despite persistent housing shortages and rising prices, according to new analysis.
Modelling based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data by KPMG indicates the population of the state’s south-east has expanded by up to 2.2% a year over the past five years, outpacing the national average of 1.5%. The firm forecasts the region’s population could approach five million by 2036.
“You've got people coming from expensive Sydney or dreary Melbourne or those small cities around the country, and also it's pulling people from places like Darwin and Cairns,” said Terry Rawnsley, urban economist at KPMG.
The analysis shows that population gains are not confined to Brisbane. More than half of the additional residents over recent years have settled outside the capital, reshaping demand patterns across the broader region.
In the past five years, about 68,000 people have moved to the Gold Coast, 61,000 to Logan and Beaudesert, 51,600 to Ipswich and 47,500 to the Sunshine Coast, highlighting the scale of decentralisation.
“What we are seeing in Brisbane over a long time is the inner-city suburbs have got more and more expensive, and more and more people are being pushed out to those growth areas in Ipswich and Logan,” Rawnsley (pictured right) said.
Interstate migration remains a major driver of demand, with more than 22,000 people relocating to south-east Queensland from other cities in recent years. However, Rawnsley noted that the pace of movement from Sydney to Brisbane has begun to ease over the past three years as Queensland prices have risen.
Price growth outpaces supply
Against this backdrop, dwelling values in Brisbane continue to rise on the back of constrained supply.
Figures from Cotality show unit values in Brisbane increased 2.2% in November, while house prices climbed 1.8%. Over the past 12 months, overall property prices have increased 12.8%.
Brisbane’s median home value now stands at $1,015,767, placing it second only to Sydney nationally.
For mortgage professionals, the combination of population growth, elevated prices and limited stock is likely to sustain strong competition for available properties, particularly in key growth corridors, and maintain focus on borrowing capacity, affordability and product structure.
Rental affordability under strain
Pressure is also acute in the rental sector, where cost increases have outstripped incomes for many households.
According to the Queensland Council of Social Services’ (QCOSS) 2025 living affordability report, based on a survey of 1,017 respondents, rental increases represent the most significant cost burden on household budgets.
QCOSS chief executive Aimee McVeigh said vacancy rates meant it was “virtually impossible” for low-income families to find an affordable rental in the current market.
For lenders, brokers and other mortgage professionals, the data underline ongoing serviceability risks and the importance of assessing total housing costs – including rent for would-be first-home buyers and mortgage repayments for owner-occupiers – as demand in south-east Queensland continues to build ahead of the 2032 Olympics.
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