Catchment areas see slower price gains despite infrastructure upgrades
Despite commanding significant premiums, housing values along Sydney’s Metro corridors have generally grown at a slower pace than the broader Sydney market since the opening of the City & Southwest Line, according to new research by property data firm Cotality.
The study examined property prices within one kilometre of Metro stations (primary catchment) and between one and five kilometres (secondary catchment), comparing areas served by both the Metro North-West Line, launched in 2019, and the City & Southwest Line, which began operations in August 2024.
The findings indicate that, while the upgraded transport infrastructure has delivered improved connectivity, most Metro catchment areas have experienced weaker price growth than Greater Sydney overall. Over the past two years, house prices in the primary catchment of Phase 2 stations rose by 10.9%, slightly outpacing the citywide increase of 9.6%. However, this was the exception, with most catchment areas underperforming the broader market.
“Despite the upgraded transport infrastructure, the catchment areas of both phases have generally seen a softer growth outcome for housing values relative to the Greater Sydney benchmark,” said Cotality research director Tim Lawless.
Cotality attributed the slower growth partly to the substantial price premium in these areas. Median house values in the secondary catchment of Phase 2 stations reached $3.62 million, nearly $2.1 million higher than the Greater Sydney median of $1.52 million. Units in both the primary and secondary catchments of Phase 2 also carried a notable premium, with median values around $1.42 million—approximately $550,000 above the city median.
The elevated price points, combined with affordability constraints and reduced borrowing capacity, are likely factors limiting further growth in these locations.
House price trends in Metro catchments have broadly mirrored those of Greater Sydney, with similar timing for market peaks and troughs but differing growth rates. Following the start of Metro construction in 2013, Phase 1 catchments saw strong gains, followed by sharper corrections in 2015 and 2017/18, coinciding with tighter lending standards and regulatory interventions. This suggests that investor activity may have played a significant role during the upswing.
Over the past year, the primary catchment of Phase 2 stations recorded a 2.3% increase in house values, compared to 2.9% for Greater Sydney. Some suburbs, such as Chatswood and Cherrybrook, saw declines of 2.3% and 1.2% respectively. More affordable suburbs in Sydney’s west and south-west, many with rail access and lower entry prices, have seen stronger growth, reflecting a broader trend towards less expensive markets amid high interest rates and cost-of-living pressures.
Unit values have also lagged. Across Greater Sydney, unit prices were flat in the year to August. In Metro catchments, Phase 1 primary and secondary areas saw unit values fall by 1.4% and 0.4% respectively, while Phase 2 secondary and primary catchments recorded declines of 1.7% and 2.0%. Over two years, unit values in primary catchments of both phases were flat or negative, while secondary catchments saw minimal gains.
The composition of housing stock may be a factor. Units represent a large share of dwellings near Metro stations – 65% in Phase 1 primary catchments and 89% in Phase 2. This is especially pronounced in suburbs close to major employment centres, such as North Sydney and the CBD.
Rental markets in Metro catchments remain significantly more expensive than the city median. Median rents for all dwellings ranged from a 21.4% premium in the Phase 1 primary catchment to a 46.9% premium in the Phase 2 secondary catchment. House rents in the Phase 2 secondary catchment were almost 80% higher than the Greater Sydney median. Unit rents have risen fastest in the Phase 2 primary catchment, up 5.0% over the past year and 9.7% over two years.
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