Canada’s weather increasingly appealing to immigrants as the climate crisis ramps up elsewhere
The global climate crisis is shaping migration and strengthening long-term demand for Canadian real estate, according to a new Concordia University and Equiton Inc. report.
The study, The North Effect: Climate Resilience of the Canadian Real Estate Market, finds that Canada’s relatively moderate climate is increasingly appealing to immigrants from countries highly exposed to climate-related risks, including wildfires, floods, and heatwaves.
This trend, the titular “North Effect,” suggests that warming in Canada’s northern regions may moderate extreme conditions and, in turn, enhance the country’s attractiveness to newcomers.
“This research validates what housing advocates have long known – that minimizing policy barriers and lowering construction costs is crucial to addressing the housing crisis,” said Christopher Wein, CEO of Equiton Developments, Equiton’s in-house development division.
Climate risks and real estate impacts
Building on prior work by Dr. Erkan Yönder’s team at Concordia’s John Molson School of Business, which used artificial intelligence to project rent trends in cities such as Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal, this latest analysis incorporates decades of climate, economic, and demographic data. The study underscores the geographic nature of climate risk and its implications for institutional real estate investment.
According to the findings, increased climate exposure decreases migration to affected regions. A 1°C rise in average temperature reduces a location’s immigrant share by 0.1% relative to 2011, while 10 additional hot days above 30°C lowers it by 0.5%. A 10% increase in wildfire area leads to a 2% drop in the immigrant share.
In contrast, these trends do not hold for Canada. The report finds that a 1°C increase in average temperature actually raises immigration to Canadian census divisions. The researchers suggest that more temperate conditions may be making historically cold areas more attractive to newcomers.
Country of origin factors
Using the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative’s climate exposure index, the study also examined how conditions in immigrants’ countries of origin affect migration. A 10-unit increase in a country’s climate exposure score corresponds to a 0.5% increase in that country’s share of immigrants to Canada across all categories—temporary workers, students, and permanent residents.
Economic drivers are also influential. A one-unit decrease in the log of a home country’s GDP per capita is linked to an increase of 0.4 to 0.9 percentage points in its immigrant share to Canada. These results suggest that both climate and economic conditions significantly shape Canadian immigration flows.
Financial and policy implications
Climate-related damages are rising across Canada. The Insurance Bureau of Canada reported a 379% increase in annual insurable losses over the past decade, with a record 228,000 claims—406% above the 20-year average. In 2024, Desjardins stopped issuing new mortgages in flood-risk zones in Quebec, reflecting growing financial caution.
The report advises institutional investors to manage climate risk through geographic diversification. For policymakers, it recommends supporting climate-adaptive infrastructure and green-certified real estate, especially as Canada continues to face housing shortages and rising migration.
What actions do you believe Canadian policymakers should prioritize to address the growing housing demand? Share your insights in the comments below.
