Standoff keeps sales flat while price trends diverge sharply across regions
Canada’s housing market entered a rare holding pattern by late fall, with buyers and sellers locked in what one major lender describes as a “waiting game” that keeps activity subdued even as borrowing costs ease.
“Canadian homebuyers are playing the waiting game in a showdown with sellers, whose ranks have swelled in the past couple of years in parts of the country,” Robert Hague of RBC Economics said. “The fall market has largely been a non-event as a result.”
According to RBC, “home resales have neither grown nor shrunk across the country since July” after a slight 0.6% decline in November nearly offset a modest gain the previous month.
That flatlining trend, RBC said, allowed buyers in many centres to “strong-arm sellers into reducing prices” as listings accumulated.
“It’s working to a degree,” the report said. “Canada’s composite MLS Home Price Index edged 0.7% lower in the past four months and is now down 3.7% from a year ago.”
The softness remained concentrated in Ontario and British Columbia, while prices “also dropped in Alberta,” giving buyers “a lot more choice than a year ago” and room to “shop around.”
RBC added that “new listings have fallen 4% in the past three months nationwide, including a 1.6% decline in November from October.”
If that pullback persisted, the report said, it could “help drain some of the inventory built in Ontario and B.C., rebalance supply and demand, and stabilize prices.”
At the same time, conditions have diverged sharply across the country. Less than half of local markets saw resales drop in November, including Toronto (‑0.6%), Ottawa (‑6.7%), Montreal (‑2.8%), Halifax (‑12.8%), Victoria (‑6.6%) and Winnipeg (‑2.1%), while Vancouver (4.6%), Edmonton (3.6%), Calgary (0.3%), Regina (6%) and Saskatoon (6.2%) all posted gains.
In many regions outside Ontario, B.C. and parts of Alberta, RBC said markets were “still generally running relatively hot with tight supply sustaining upward pressure on home values.”
“We expect these trajectories to be sustained in the coming months," RBC said.
Stalled momentum this fall came “despite further interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada in September and October, which further improved affordability for buyers,” RBC said.
“The lack of response, perhaps, in part reflected an anticipation that rates might be cut even lower.”
With the central bank now signalling the current easing cycle has likely ended, RBC said that could be “the hint some buyers were waiting for to make a move.”
“We expect past rate reductions and price drops in certain markets to draw more buyers from the sidelines in the year ahead, unlocking some pent‑up demand accumulated during the period of elevated borrowing costs,” the report said.
“Improving job prospects, and rebuilding confidence would also support a gradual market turnaround. Still, the road ahead is poised to be bumpy with affordability challenges persisting in several major markets, and sharply lower immigration creating headwinds.”
A more balanced, slower market does not eliminate risk, but it does shift it. With buyers testing their leverage, regional paths for prices diverging, and policy‑driven factors such as immigration and monetary policy still in flux, deal‑making in 2026 would likely hinge less on momentum and more on granular, city‑by‑city fundamentals.
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