Move-up buyers in limbo as housing market remains stalled

Homes aren’t selling for what they used to – and that’s causing plenty of problems for movers who need to offload a property before buying

Move-up buyers in limbo as housing market remains stalled

First-time homebuyers may not be rushing off the sidelines across some of Canada’s priciest housing markets, but their chances of purchasing a home are improving – slightly – as prices tick lower.

The buyer cohort facing a real headache in the current market, instead, may be move-up buyers: those who are trying to make the leap to a bigger property but find themselves unable to shift their current home in a frozen housing market.

That’s partly because some hopeful sellers haven’t adjusted their mindset since the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Vancouver-based mortgage planner Sharon Davis (pictured top) of DLC Producers West Financial, and are still holding out hope that they’ll be able to get top dollar for their home.

“It takes a while for those people to have that mind shift: ‘If I sell low, I’m going to buy low,’” Davis told Canadian Mortgage Professional. “Everybody wants to sell high and buy low, but it doesn’t necessarily work that way.

“Selling low – even if you take a little bit of a loss – but buying low is a better spread versus selling high and buying high because [then] you’re going to pay more property and transfer tax. You’re paying more everything.”

Vancouver housing market continues to cool

October sales in Vancouver slipped 14.5% below the 10-year seasonal average, according to Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVA), with active inventory swelling: property listings soared 35.9% above the seasonal average for the decade, and were up 13.2% compared with the same time last year.

That’s a stark contrast from the boom years in the early pandemic, when purchase activity and prices soared as buyers rushed to take advantage of low interest rates and a mountain of extra savings.

A series of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada in 2022 and 2023 helped tap the brakes on that frenzy – and some homeowners who purchased during the pandemic but now want to sell still haven’t come to terms with the reality of the current market, Davis said.

“A lot of people that are wanting to make that move bought in post-COVID or around COVID times – and so they paid a lot for those properties, and they don’t want to let that go for less than they paid for it,” she said.

“They’re not going to get that price – but also, that house that they want is probably $100,000 less than they could have bought it for back in COVID times. I think you just need to reset the mentality.”

Don’t expect prices to rebound sharply soon

Sellers hoping to ride out the current turbulence until prices start to climb again could be waiting for a while.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) said in its resale housing market forecast for 2026, updated in October, that it expects resale prices across British Columbia to slip by 3.1% this year, recovering only by 1.8% throughout 2026.

That’s despite a possible big jump in activity during the same period. After a projected 4.1% drop in sales this year, CREA expects a rebound in 2026 – to 80,342, a yearly increase of 12.6%.

For sellers, that means even a heating-up of homebuying activity likely won’t spur a huge jump in price appreciation this year and next.

Still, Davis said there remain opportunities for those who want to move on to another property, even if it means selling at a loss for now.

“I think you just need to reset that mentality,” she said. “When you’re talking tens of thousands or a hundred thousand dollars, it’s a lot of money to swallow just by not getting what you want.

“But again, it’s a timing thing. Especially if you’re younger and you have years to go, if you’re going to make that move to a townhome or from a townhome to a house, you can make that. Again, it’s all about the spread.”

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