Former Bank of Canada governor clinches victory with a plan to radically shake up the housing outlook
Mark Carney completed a stunning reversal of fortunes for the federal Liberals on Monday night, leading the party to an election victory few had thought possible at the turn of the year.
With 169 seats won, the governing party – which floundered well behind the opposition Conservatives in opinion polls at the beginning of 2025 – fell just short of the 172 required to clinch a majority.
But the result, which included big wins for the Liberals in Ontario and Quebec, gave Carney a strong impetus to push ahead with an agenda that includes what he’s described as Canada’s most ambitious housing plan since the Second World War.
While Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who lost his own seat in a shock result in Carleton, described the Liberal minority as “razor-thin”, he congratulated Carney on the win and acknowledged its legitimacy during his concession speech on Monday night.
A minority government can sometimes thwart a ruling party’s ability to implement its platform, including on the housing front. But that’s unlikely to be the case after Carney’s win, according to mortgage brokering sector advisor JP Boutros (pictured top).
“Carney’s mandate is legitimate. Even Pierre Poilievre graciously acknowledged this,” he told Canadian Mortgage Professional. “With legitimacy out of the way, a strong minority can work effectively without supports for at least two years. No-one who can make it happen wants another election now. It’s too costly.”
Here’s what Carney and the Liberals have promised on housing
The Liberals’ election platform included a pledge to create an organization, Build Canada Homes (BCH), aimed at funnelling billions of dollars into affordable housing and supporting prefabricated homebuilders.
Carney also pledged to make it easier for companies to build by cutting red tape and reducing municipal development charges, while first-time buyers would see the Goods and Services Tax (GST) scrapped for home purchases of $1 million or under.
Mark Carney secures a historic victory in Canada’s high-stakes election but faces uncertainty in achieving an outright majority. https://t.co/4yT3LqGPfI
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) April 29, 2025
While its implementation could be easier said than done, Boutros said the BCH plan marked a positive step for Canada’s housing market. “The money can likely be found to start it, but housing needs maintenance,” he said. “How will the ongoing maintenance of this affordable housing be funded? The provinces need to be part of any such plan. Because of the intricacies, BCH will not be a Year One priority.
“Of note, BCH heavily promotes prefab construction, which is a positive. It would create new jobs, scale faster, and there’s improved tech behind it all which didn’t exist years ago. It could deliver more bang for the buck. Support for prefab housing construction – jobs and tech – can be carved out of the promotion of BCH, which would show a ‘quick win’ on Carney’s housing file.”
Trump’s annexation threats outweigh housing in Carney’s priorities
Even those hoping for quick action on the housing file know one issue has dominated the election campaign and will remain the top priority for Carney and his new team, pushing others into the background: relations with the US amid a trade war and Donald Trump’s repeated suggestion that it should annex Canada.
“It comes down to priorities,” Boutros said. “Carney was elected as an economist to take on Trump and be a steady hand. Everything else is secondary. The economy, tariffs, and job growth are it.”
But housing and mortgage market watchers will still be keeping a keen eye on Carney’s cabinet choices to advance his housing agenda in the weeks ahead – and on how his plan will impact the mortgage industry throughout his term.
“Carney comes from the world of finance, from banking,” Boutros said. “He might entrust a lot of policymaking and risk to the big banks, with OSFI [the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions] keeping them on a tight leash.
“What it all means for alternative and private lending will be interesting to watch. He cares bout moral hazard. He knows how small problems can become big problems. If mortgages become problematic to the economy, too risky, he’ll be aware of it quickly and not let issues fester.”
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