National housing market likely to see a solid remainder of 2025, suggests RE/MAX VP
It’s been a sluggish year to date for Canada’s national housing market as tariffs and economic unease keep homebuyers firmly on the sidelines, but recent reports have suggested cause for cautious optimism.
First, the bad news: activity is still well below historical standards across major markets including the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), despite a mild spring and summer rebound.
But national sales jumped by 2.8% last month compared with May, a second consecutive positive month for homebuying, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
That suggests Canadians are gradually coming to terms with the initial shock of the trade chaos that’s engulfed the economy this year, RE/MAX Canada area vice president Kingsley Ma (pictured top) told Canadian Mortgage Professional.
While US president Donald Trump sent financial markets into a tailspin in early 2025 by unveiling plans for huge levies on Canadian imports – and doubling down with other charges on key global trading partners – a sharp economic downturn from that policy has yet to materialize.
That’s partly because of a series of exemptions and delays to Trump’s threatened tariffs, and Ma said Canadian homebuyers are slowly regathering confidence.
“This year has been interesting because of the tariff situation that happened early on. It’s created a lot of uncertainty for a lot of people, and even buyers that were originally ready to buy this year have been holding out,” he said.
“But now that a couple of months have passed and there’s a pent-up demand of people that want to buy and still need to move, I think they’re slowly building a little bit of confidence that the tariff situation will settle.”
Still, that doesn’t mean the mortgage industry should expect a huge pickup in activity before the end of the year. While overall supply ticked lower in June, Ma said it would take time to shift excess inventory and heat up the market further.
“If you look at the overall situation there’s still quite a bit of inventory even though it’s down a little bit,” he said. “But the ratio of sales to new listings has actually gone up a little bit and the trend will likely continue when the sales activity continues to pick up.
“It’s a healthy, balanced market between now and the end of the year. You likely won’t see prices increase too much, even in places that are hotter than others. But in most cases, it’ll be a balanced market for both buyers and sellers, so it won’t lean towards either side.”
Housing markets across Canada are experiencing vastly different conditions as trade war uncertainty begins to ease, with some regions seeing modest recovery while others face continued price declines, according to a new RBC report.https://t.co/y2b4R7yPSF
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) July 14, 2025
Home prices: still not surging
During the COVID-19 pandemic, scores of buyers – especially those hoping to purchase for the first time – found themselves frozen out of the country’s hottest housing markets because of huge price appreciation, fierce competition, and bidding wars.
That’s no longer the case in Toronto and Vancouver, where homebuying has tailed off dramatically and prices have slid since 2022, when the Bank of Canada began hiking interest rates in response to a rapid surge in inflation.
While prices are still prohibitive for many of those buyers, a mildly encouraging sign is the likelihood that property values aren’t expected to climb significantly between now and the end of the year.
“If prices go up, it’ll probably be early next year,” Ma said. “Between now and the end of the year, it’ll be just more of a balanced market where prices will continue to hold steady in most markets, but you’ll see more activity.”
Buyers ‘actually have some power’ in current market
Some first-time buyers may be holding off on making a move in expectation of further price drops and potential rate cuts ahead – but Ma said now likely marks an opportune moment for those Canadians to buy.
That’s partly because hotter-than-expected inflation likely took a Bank of Canada rate reduction off the table this month, with speculation growing that the central bank may not lower rates in September either.
What’s more, competition could intensify if more people decided the time is right to buy. “There’s a lot of product out there for them to choose from because when the market’s hot, you don’t have the opportunity to take your time and assess what you really want,” Ma said.
“But now, they have the opportunity to negotiate on the deal. So if you’re a buyer today, especially a first-time homebuyer, you actually have some power to look into the market and get the right product at the right price you want.”
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