Sales and prices are resilient while homebuilding is still robust – unlike many other parts of Canada
How are Canada’s mortgage and housing markets faring in the last quarter of the year? The answer still largely depends on where you are in the country – and with 2025 nearly in the books, some of the country’s most resilient provincial markets are in Atlantic Canada.
Ontario, British Columbia and Alberta are still seeing a sluggish pace of activity despite some encouraging signs, according to the latest Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) sales figures released this week.
But in Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick, sales and prices remain robust, with inventory strained and demand also high.
A new analysis by Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) assistant chief economist Robert Hogue highlighted those provinces – alongside Manitoba and Quebec – as the Canadian regions which saw the brightest overall performance in the market last month.
While home price growth has broadly slowed across most of Atlantic Canada in the year to date – except for Newfoundland – most of its regions are still seeing all-time highs, according to Keystone MIC president Ryan MacNeil (pictured top).
With inventory tight in most urban markets, price corrections or declines haven’t materialized yet, and MacNeil characterized the outlook in the Atlantic regions as calmer than other markets.
“We’re seeing lower volatility overall despite the significant increase in Atlantic Canadian home prices in 2021-22,” he told Canadian Mortgage Professional. “The region appears more resilient and balanced relative to other major markets in Canada.
“There has not been as much downward pressure on home prices in our urban markets, and most markets are still firmly sellers’ markets. The average Atlantic Canadian home price remains close to 50% lower than the average Canadian home price.”
Housing starts steady in Atlantic Canada
The homebuilding outlook in Atlantic Canada also looks rosier than many other parts of Canada. While a plummeting pace of construction in Ontario and British Columbia spurred an overall decline in national October housing starts, the Atlantic regions posted a solid performance.
In Newfoundland, single-detached housing starts in centres with a population of 10,000 and over have jumped by 12% in the year to date compared with the same period in 2024, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) said on Tuesday.
In Nova Scotia, meanwhile, the year-over-year improvement in housing starts of all types soared to 26%, boosting an overall Atlantic jump of 15% in the January-October period.
Nova Scotia, MacNeil pointed out, had already surpassed its 2024 new starts total by August of this year. Still, lenders are continuing with a cautious approach to the construction market even despite the encouraging signs out east.
MacNeil said Keystone’s flexible new home construction program now represents close to a third of its book – but it’s still applying plenty of conservatism in its lending appetite by reducing loan-to-value relative to other products and waiting to release funds until key checkpoints and inspections are completed.
“The borrower we see on this loan product tends to have very strong credit,” he said, “and are often self-employed and experienced with homebuilding.”
Rental market flux spreads east
Other prominent trends elsewhere in Canada have made their way eastwards this year, not least potential rent relief amid spiking purpose-built supply.
In huge markets like Toronto, a glut of new rental inventory is expected to become available at the end of this year and beginning of 2026, possibly good news for renters – but a bad sign for investors and commercial market speculators.
That’s also a possibility that’s being closely watched in Atlantic Canada, especially in Halifax, as rental inventory ticks higher.
“One thing we’re keeping an eye on locally in Halifax is the number of rental units coming to market,” MacNeil said. “This increase has started to cause a flood of inventory and raise vacancy rates, therefore imposing downward pressure on rents and multi-unit valuations.”
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