Mixed signals emerge for the national homebuilding outlook, with Ontario and BC continuing to struggle
Housing starts across Canada rose by 9.4% in November as a strong pace of construction in Quebec and the Atlantic and Prairie provinces helped offset still-sluggish activity in Ontario and British Columbia.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) said on Monday that the total monthly seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of national housing starts jumped to 254,058 units, an increase from 232,245 in October.
But the six-month trend in starts fell, while actual housing starts in centres with a population of 10,000 or more slid by 3% (to 21,870 last month, down from 22,501 in November 2024).
Still, those centres have seen a 4% increase in actual starts in the year to date, and CMHC deputy chief economist Kevin Hughes pointed to some positive signs for the national homebuilding outlook.
“Both the six-month trend and actual starts fell in November, showing signs of slowing momentum in residential construction,” he said in remarks accompanying the CMHC release. “This was driven by lower monthly starts in Ontario, BC, and Alberta.
“However, on a year-to-date basis, starts are still elevated compared to last year and remain on pace to surpass the 2024 total.”
Ontario and BC housing starts remain below the pace they set last year, but eastern and Prairie provinces as well as Quebec “have pushed national year-to-date starts higher,” Hughes said.
Seasonally adjusted single-detached housing starts were slightly lower across the country in November, falling by 1% from the previous month, while all other housing types posted a 2% decrease.
Canada’s tepid pace of home construction has been in the spotlight in recent years thanks to an acute affordability crisis across several key markets.
Prime minister Mark Carney unveiled plans this year to turbocharge the pace of homebuilding to about half a million units a year – well above the current clip.
Housing market watchers will get a better idea of how home construction fared this year when CMHC releases its December and full-year starts data for 2025 next month, on January 16.
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