Which regions are pulling ahead, and which are falling behind?
Canada’s housing market continued its gradual recovery in July, with national home resales climbing for a fourth consecutive month. But significant regional disparities underline an uneven path forward, according to a new report from RBC Economics.
Home resales rose 3.8% from June, lifting national transactions by more than 11% since the spring. The Greater Toronto Area played a central role, with activity climbing 36% from March lows. According to Robert Hogue, assistant chief economist and author of the report, “since the spring, sales have rebounded more than 11%, pointing to buyer confidence returning.”
The report also highlighted stability on the supply side, with “new listings nearly unchanged from June.” This shift pushed “the national sales-to-new listings ratio to 0.52, which is consistent with balanced conditions overall.”
Inventory, while still higher than last year, has “tightened slightly with it now taking 4.4 months to clear at the current sales pace.”
Regional disparities remain significant. “Ontario and B.C. continue to grapple with abundant inventories, putting downward pressure on prices.”
In Toronto, “sales have picked up significantly… but the high number of properties available—particularly condos—has contributed to ongoing price declines.” The city’s MLS Home Price Index was down 5.4% year-over-year in July.
Vancouver is also showing “early signs of a rebound in sales, but affordability constraints and high inventory are keeping a lid on prices.” Its price index declined 2.7% from a year earlier.
In contrast, markets in Quebec, the Prairies, and Atlantic Canada are “generally firmer.” Quebec has posted a 14% rise in sales this year, “sustaining tight supply-demand conditions and supporting modest price gains despite a small 0.4% slip in July from June.”
Saskatchewan and Manitoba remain well above pre-pandemic resale levels, with inventories trending lower and “applying intense upward pressure on prices.” Calgary and Edmonton are “relatively balanced with strong new construction helping to meet demand. But, this has also resulted in mild temporary price declines.”
“Affordability continues to be a critical factor influencing market trends.” Ownership costs are now at their best level in three years, but in Ontario and B.C., “buyers in these regions are limited in their ability to bid higher.” The report added that “increased supply has created a buyer’s market in Ontario and B.C., intensifying competition among sellers and limiting price growth.”
In contrast, “tighter inventory in most of the Prairies, Quebec and Atlantic Canada gives sellers more leverage, supporting modest price gains.”
“We see Canada’s housing market continuing its recovery, albeit unevenly across regions.” RBC Economics projected that “home resales will rise 7.9% in 2026, more than offsetting a 3.5% drop this year.”
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