Vancouver’s construction surge offsets condo weakness in Ontario and Quebec
Canada’s housing starts posted a slight national increase in June, with Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) reporting a 0.4% month-over-month gain in seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR), surprising economists who had expected a slowdown amid economic uncertainty.
The total SAAR of housing starts across all areas reached 283,734 units in June, up modestly from 282,705 units in May. The national six-month trend in housing starts, which smooths out volatility from monthly data, climbed 3.6% to 253,081 units.
CMHC’s deputy chief economist Kevin Hughes noted that although the national numbers suggest a modest improvement, the pace of construction remains highly uneven across regions.
“New home construction varies significantly across Canada,” he said in the report.
Actual starts in urban centres (with populations of 10,000 or more) rose 14% year over year, reaching 23,282 units in June compared to 20,509 a year earlier. Year-to-date, housing starts in these centres totalled 114,411 units, a 4% increase from the same period in 2024.
Vancouver saw a 74% year-over-year increase in June starts, driven by strength in the multi-unit segment. Meanwhile, Toronto posted a 40% decline and Montreal experienced an 8% drop, both attributed to softer demand for condominiums and fewer multi-unit project launches.
“Québec and the Prairie provinces have accelerated the pace of construction for single-detached homes and purpose-built rentals. By contrast, weak condo market conditions in Toronto and Vancouver have contributed to declines in overall housing starts in these regions,” Hughes said.
Kingsley Ma, area vice president at RE/MAX Canada, noted that the sales-to-new-listings ratio is tightening.
“If you look at the overall situation there’s still quite a bit of inventory even though it’s down a little bit,” Ma told Canadian Mortgage Professional. “But the ratio of sales to new listings has actually gone up a little bit and the trend will likely continue when the sales activity continues to pick up.
Read more: ‘A healthy, balanced market’: Canadian homebuying shows signs of life
National home sales increased for the second month in a row. Data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed a 2.8% month-over-month gain in transactions for June, following a 3.5% increase in May.
The Greater Toronto Area led the rebound, with cumulative sales rising 17.3% since April. However, activity levels in the region still remain below historical norms. However, new listings dropped 2.9% nationally last month, adding pressure to supply.
“You likely won’t see prices increase too much, even in places that are hotter than others,” he said. “But in most cases, it’ll be a balanced market for both buyers and sellers, so it won’t lean towards either side.”
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