Analysts say Calgary’s housing market could be poised for a solid performance next year even with wider challenges continuing
Calgary’s real estate board said sales and prices continued to slide in the city last month as part of a wider freeze in Canada’s housing market – but mortgage brokers there expect more options for buyers and strong out-of-province interest will contribute to a solid 2026.
Inventory levels are soaring in Calgary, the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) said last week, jumping by 28% year over year in November at the onset of a typical pullback in sales and new listings at the end of the year.
That’s strained prices in the city and eased some of the affordability pressures facing buyers in a market whose performance had until recently defied a trend of cooling activity in major Canadian cities.
No boom in store, but a balanced market could be ahead
Max Singh (pictured top), a broker with TMG The Mortgage Group in Calgary, said he expected a balanced market to prevail in the coming year – especially because prices are still much more affordable than plenty of other big cities.
In October, Ratehub.ca estimated a Calgary homebuyer would need an income of $122,700 to buy an average home. That’s higher than many markets – but lower than Montreal, Hamilton, and Ottawa, and significantly below the income required in Toronto, Vancouver, and Victoria.
That means plenty of hopeful homeowners from those cities are still setting their sights on a move to Calgary, a trend that emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic as prices skyrocketed in bigger cities.
“Toronto and Vancouver folks are still packing their bags and landing in YYC,” Singh told Canadian Mortgage Professional. “Lower prices and more space are irresistible.
“The ripple effect is that competition stays strong in key segments, well-priced listings move fast, and local buyers need to stay sharp and pre-approved. The inflow is fuelling growth, new communities, and a healthy long-term market.”
Could that freeze out local homebuyers contending with a flood of competition from outside the city? Some analysts see that as unlikely. A new Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) analysis showed falling prices have “sweetened the options” for buyers, with the city’s composite MLS HPI (Home Price Index) benchmark now 4.6% lower than the same time in 2024.
And the banking giant says home values will probably continue falling in the short term thanks to a likely further uptick in inventory.
Singh said he viewed Calgary’s outlook for first-time buyers as “better than almost any major city in Canada” because of that comparative affordability.
Taz Zaide of 6ix Mortgage says appraisals in Toronto are still coming in below summer purchase prices, signaling a sideways market as 2025 closes. https://t.co/CULizrVSCc
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) December 1, 2025
“It still offers manageable entry points, new builds with incentives, inventory in a variety of neighbourhoods, and one of the strongest dollar-for-value ratios in the country,” he said.
“2026 will still reward first-time buyers who plan early, get preapproved, and move confidently when the right place pops up.”
That likely means a healthy year is ahead for mortgage brokers in the city – even if activity may not be as frenzied as it was in the years immediately following the COVID-19 pandemic.
Calgary’s performance could mirror certain other Canadian markets
For the national housing market, brokers have cause for cautious optimism in 2026, according to Royal LePage’s latest survey.
The real estate giant’s president and chief executive officer Phil Soper views lower interest rates, higher inventory and lower competition as key reasons for a potential boost to buyers and brokers.
Calgary is among a group of cities – including Ottawa, Edmonton, Winnipeg and Halifax – expected to see up to 2% in price growth next year, a modest but encouraging pace that would place it ahead of both Toronto and Vancouver.
And Singh said that while he’s not expecting a real estate boom in the coming 12 months, he still sees Calgary’s housing market eking out growth in both prices and activity in 2026.
“Population growth, strong employment, and relative affordability keep the city moving forward,” he said. “Expect steady demand, tight inventory, and a market that stays resilient – not overheated, but definitely not sleepy.”
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