Modest monthly rise in sentiment offers limited relief for home loan market, with many borrowers still bracing for “bad times”
Consumer confidence has risen to 84.5 in the week of 6–12 January 2025, up three points on the previous reading but still below both last year’s level and the 2025 weekly average so far.
The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence sits 2.6 points under the same week in 2024, when confidence was 87.1, and 1.8 points below the 2025 weekly average of 86.3.
According to the long-running series, this is the lowest consumer confidence level recorded at the beginning of a calendar year since January 1991, when the survey was still conducted monthly and registered 78.5.
Sentiment increased in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia, while South Australia recorded a small fall.
Short-term views on the economy improved, with 10% of respondents (up two percentage points) expecting “good times” for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, compared with 32% (down one percentage point) who anticipate “bad times”.
Longer-term expectations also firmed. Over the next five years, 11% of Australians (up two percentage points) foresee “good times” for the economy, while 28% (down 1 percentage point) expect “bad times”.
Perceptions of personal finances remain weak, an important indicator for lenders assessing household capacity to service debt. Nineteen percent of Australians, unchanged from the previous reading, report that their family is “better off” financially than a year ago. By contrast, 45% – also unchanged – say they are “worse off”.
Expectations for the year ahead are slightly more positive. Some 26% of respondents (up one percentage point) believe their family will be “better off” financially in 12 months’ time, while 33% (down two percentage points) expect to be “worse off”.
Meanwhile, net buying sentiment showed a notable improvement at the start of the year. Twenty-six percent of respondents (up two percentage points) consider now to be a “good time to buy” major household items. By comparison, 32% (down four percentage points) say it is a “bad time to buy” big-ticket goods.
According to ANZ economist Sophia Angala (pictured right), the early-January rise in confidence followed a familiar seasonal pattern but remained weak in context. “ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence had its usual jump in early January, however this is the weakest new year’s print in 35 years,” she said.
“The ‘time to buy a major household item’ subindex recorded the largest increase across the subindices and is now sitting at its third-highest reading since the beginning of 2025, and only a little below the recent Black Friday peak.
“Weekly inflation expectations eased 0.2 percentage point last week. This was likely supported by recent monthly inflation data, which showed annual growth in inflation eased slightly in November.”
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