Bigger things are coming for the region, analysts say
It’s all gun blazing at Greater Western Sydney (GWS), if NAB’s Special Horizons Report 2025 report is to be believed.
Reflecting on a “year of stellar growth”, analysts at the Big Four bank are hugely optimistic that this patch of the New South Wales capital, grazed by the Blue Mountains to the left and Parramatta to the right, has bigger things coming.
The bank puts forward a compelling argument.
Here’s a few straight facts:
- GWS now houses one in two Sydney residents and is projected to absorb two-thirds of Sydney’s future population growth
- The median dwelling value of $1.125 million remains more affordable than Greater Sydney overall (currently $1.21 million)
- GWS has a diversity in housing, from high-density apartments along transit corridors, greenfield estates, and mixed-use precincts, thus appealing to a wide buyer base
Some of the fastest-growing suburbs in the region include:
- Bonnyrigg (Fairfield) +14.6% YoY
- Cobbitty (Camden) +12.6% YoY
- Tregear (Blacktown) +10.3% YoY
- Austral (Liverpool) +10.0% YoY
- North St Marys (Penrith) +10.0% YoY
According to the NAB report, GWS residents have higher life satisfaction and happiness levels than the NSW average, with strong community spirit, shorter commutes within the west, and a thriving night-time economy cited as motivating factors.
Alongside housing, industry property transactions are particularly hot, clocking in low-double-digit year-on-year growth in 2025.
The Western Sydney International Airport – which is due to open its hangar door in late 2026 – and Aerotropolis industrial and logistics precinct – which is expected to contribute 200,000 new jobs over the coming three decades – are among the big-ticket industrial projects driving growth in the area.
When looking at business and investment, borrowing grew by 9.2% and deposits by 9.8% in the year to 31 May. In both cases, these were above NSW as a whole.
It all sounds very bullish, but if you ask Julie Rynski, executive – metro and specialised at NAB Business and Private Banking, “this is just the start”.
“There are some who believe that the opening of Western Sydney International (Nancy-Bird Walton) Airport in 2026 will mean the end of a chapter – a full stop on this period of extraordinary flourishing. But I believe that it’s simply the end of the beginning,” said Rynski.
"The airport is just one part of that story; other chapters are the public transport and highway projects in development, the new suburbs and charter cities breaking ground, and the construction and logistics industries that have boomed over the past 12 months.”
Brokers brace for perfect storm
For Brooke Reilly (pictured, left), sole broker at Brooke Your Broker, first-home buyers are at the vanguard residential property demand in the GWS area; at least in her patch in and around Penrith and the lower Blue Mountains.
It’s a perfect storm: Property prices are cheaper, there are green spaces and the Blue Mountains on your doorstep, and incoming government incentives will make it easier to secure a loan.
From January 2026, first-home buyers will be able to secure a 5% mortgage without costly lenders mortgage insurance (LMI). Price caps will be lifted from $900,000 (which is woefully out of date given the seven-figure median Sydney house price) to $1.5 million, while income limits will be scrapped altogether.
“Once the cap is lifted, that will definitely drive the market,” said Reilly. She predicts a few clients that were previously locked out of government incentives will be picking up the phone in the new year.
“I’ve had a few clients that were just over the limit and didn't qualify. So this will open the door for them, especially with the $1.5 million purchase price threshold,” she said.
Reilly also dabbles in commercial finance and while the SME space is less bullish than residential (“nothing out of the ordinary”, in her words), it is at least stable. Trades, building companies and industrial units are particular hotspots, she noted.
Housing supply remains a sticking point
Reilly is far from the only broker in the GWS area with an optimistic outlook.
Blue Mountains and Penrith-based MoneyQuest franchise owner Peita Davies (pictured, right) is seeing a lot more opportunity, particularly for first-home buyers, in the Penrith region.
“The NAB report really aligns with what we’re seeing day-to-day in Penrith and the Blue Mountains,” said Davies. “That 10% growth in North St Marys is pretty typical of the strong, consistent demand we’re experiencing across the area. The Western Sydney Airport has definitely shifted buyer sentiment – people are starting to understand the connectivity this region is going to have.”
Davies’ client mix has really diversified over the past year. “We’re not just helping first-home buyers anymore – there are established families, investors, and downsizers who are recognising the lifestyle and value proposition here,” she said.
In a recent podcast with MPA, Davies noted that her clients are “starting to reset their expectations”. In other words, Davies is seeing younger buyers contemplating buying a unit as a starting point before moving onto bigger things.
While planning laws have heavily restricted the development of high-density residential spaces in the Blue Mountains, more urbanised locations, particularly Penrith, have been more accommodating.
Yet supply is still certainly an issue, as it is across most of Australia.
Reilly said there is an “ongoing battle” between developers and councils in unlocking land to build unit blocks. But with red tape in the firing line as the federal Labor Government hopes to build 1.2 million new homes by 2029, one wonders if the battle will soon see a victor emerge.
If so, GWS could grow even more than NAB’s rosy predictions.
