Aggregator flags limited scope for further easing as brokers urged to prepare borrowers
Mortgage brokers are being advised to prepare clients for the possibility of higher interest rates in 2026, with aggregator Finsure Group warning that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may resume tightening next year.
According to Finsure, official rates are expected to end 2025 at 3.60%, with little prospect of additional cuts in the near term.
Finsure chief executive Simon Bednar (pictured top) said the central bank was unlikely to adjust policy at its final meeting of the year. “There is absolute zero chance of a move by the RBA at this month’s meeting and headwinds into 2026 mean it is questionable if we’ll see any relief in the near future,” he said.
Market views appear to align with a near-term pause. In this month’s Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey, all 35 participating economists and commentators also forecast that the RBA will keep the cash rate steady at 3.605 in December.
Bednar (pictured right) warned that conditions could shift again once the new year begins. “I have concerns there could be possibly two hikes in the New Year which is unfortunate,” he added. “This looks like it will be an important time for brokers to help their customers prepare for and navigate these challenges to get through the tough times.”
The RBA has lowered the cash rate by a total of 75 basis points in 2025, following its earlier move to lift the benchmark to 4.35%, a 12-year high. Those cuts have provided some repayment relief for borrowers but have not been enough to bring inflation back into the middle of the target band.
Bednar noted that the recent inflation outcome had tempered hopes of another reduction before year-end. “But expectations for another cut this year faded after inflation rose to 3.2%, above the central bank's 2-3% target range,” he said.
Against that backdrop, Finsure suggested that the most realistic positive scenario for mortgage holders in 2026 may be a prolonged period of stability in the cash rate. “The best news for mortgage customers next year could be the RBA keeping official rates in an extended holding pattern,” Bednar said.
For mortgage professionals, the focus is likely to remain on reviewing client budgets, testing serviceability under higher-rate scenarios and considering product structures that can help customers manage repayment risks if policy settings tighten again.
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