Figures for early 2026 suggest limited near-term pressure on interest rates, despite a tight market
Wages growth held broadly steady in the three months to February 2026, according to Commonwealth Bank analysis based on its internal salary transaction data, reinforcing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will remain cautious as it weighs inflation risks.
The bank’s CommBank Wage Insights measure showed wages rising 0.7% over the three months to February, a slightly softer pace than in November and December.
Annual wages growth was unchanged at 3.1%, a level it has largely maintained since mid-2025.
“Our data is not yet showing any response to the tightening in labour market conditions through late 2025 and into early 2026,” said Belinda Allen (pictured right), head of Australian economics at CommBank.
“But there are often lags from when the labour market tightens to wages growth picking up. With concerns over inflation given the rise in energy prices, stable wages growth will give the RBA some comfort over coming months.”
Annual wages outcomes varied across jurisdictions in February. Western Australia recorded the strongest annual increase at 3.8%, though it eased from 4.2% in January. The Northern Territory was the weakest at 2.7%, marginally higher than 2.6% a month earlier.
New South Wales and Victoria were little changed at 3.3% and 3.1% respectively. The ACT held at 3.5%, while Queensland and South Australia both lifted to 3.4% and 3.5%. Tasmania slowed to 2.8% in February, down from 3.6% in November.
CommBank Labour Insights, also based on internal data, estimated employment rose by about 21,000 jobs in February, matching January’s pace. The bank said hiring now appears closer to pre-pandemic rates, following stronger growth in 2022 and 2023.
“In the second read for 2026, the CommBank Labour Insights series points to stable employment growth in the Australian economy,” Allen said. “The ABS labour force survey has shown a steady unemployment rate of 4.1% in December and January.
“At this rate, we judge the labour market is tight. Our internal data does not point to a shift in trend in either direction at the moment, reinforcing relatively stable wages growth.”
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